Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · DK · Market cap 13.9B DKK
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from kr 308.96 to kr 285.40 (−7.6%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +1.0% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 54% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 214.05). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (64/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 115.75 – kr 401.70 · fair‑value band kr 214.05 – kr 356.75 · the kr 185.90 price screens below the kr 285.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Bavarian Nordic A/S (BAVA) currently trades at kr 185.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 285.40, implying the stock looks roughly 53.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bavarian Nordic A/S generated revenue of 6.0B DKK at a net margin of 19.7%. Revenue declined 21.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 1.6B DKK. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 214.05 (bear case) to kr 356.75 (bull case); at kr 185.90, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at 54%, BAVA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 743.40) versus Economic Profit (kr 95.22). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; Vaxchora, an oral vaccine for immunization …
Full company description
Bavarian Nordic A/S develops, manufactures, and supplies life-saving vaccines. The company offers non-replicating smallpox and monkeypox vaccines under the IMVAMUNE, IMVANEX, and JYNNEOS names; rabies vaccine for human use under the Rabipur/RabAvert name; tick-borne encephalitis vaccine under the Encepur name; Vaxchora, an oral vaccine for immunization against cholera; and Vivotif/Typhoral, an oral vaccine for immunization against typhoid fever. It is also developing MVA-BN WEV, that is in phase 2 trial for the treatment of encephalitis viruses. It operates in the United States, Denmark, Canada, France, Germany, Singapore, England, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, Austria, Italy, Spain, Taiwan, Saudi Arabia, Australia, and internationally. Bavarian Nordic A/S was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Hellerup, Denmark.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bavarian Nordic A/S reported revenue of kr 6.2B in FY2025 versus kr 1.9B in FY2021, a compound +34.3%/yr. Reported net income was kr 1.4B in FY2025.
of which total revenue +21.7 pp · buybacks/dilution −9.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Biotechnology · 600 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $525.73 | $278.78 | -47% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $797.99 | $594.40 | -26% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,549,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | -32% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 202,000 KRW | 74,519 KRW | -63% |
| WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 | HK$45.70 | HK$30.58 | -33% |
| Innovent Biologics, Inc 1801 | HK$95.55 | HK$19.68 | -79% |
| Genmab A/S GMAB | kr 2,037 | kr 250.07 | -88% |
| Sino Biopharmaceutical Limited 1177 | HK$4.87 | HK$3.37 | -31% |
| RemeGen Co 688331 | ¥131.87 | ¥23.19 | -82% |
| ALTEOGEN Inc 196170 | 317,500 KRW | 39,476 KRW | -88% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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