ATRL.TO (ATRL) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · CA · Market cap C$14.3B (≈ $10.4B) · ISIN CA04764T1049
What is ATRL.TO really worth?
A solid business, but trading 72% above our fair value of C$49.87.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −5.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$73.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$33.88 to C$73.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$21.65 – C$105.91 · fair‑value band C$33.88 – C$73.66 · the C$86.00 price screens above the C$49.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
ATRL.TO (ATRL) currently trades at C$86.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$49.87, implying the stock looks roughly 72.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$211.67 per share, and 9 of the 24 models we run sit above the C$86.00 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$22.65, and 15 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, ATRL.TO generated revenue of C$11.5B at a net margin of 23.2%. Revenue grew 17.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 57.0%. Net debt stands at C$558M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$33.88 (bear case) to C$73.66 (bull case); at C$86.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −42%, ATRL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$10.55 per share, which is 21.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$211.67) versus Asset-Based (C$22.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AtkinsRéalis Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides professional services and project management, and capital investment services in the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and internationally. It operates through eight segments: Canada, UKI, USLA, AMEA, Nuclear, Linxon, LSTK Projects, and Capital.
Full company description
AtkinsRéalis Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides professional services and project management, and capital investment services in the United Kingdom, Canada, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and internationally. It operates through eight segments: Canada, UKI, USLA, AMEA, Nuclear, Linxon, LSTK Projects, and Capital. The company provides consultancy, strategy, advisory, engineering, design, project and program management and project delivery services for building and places, defence, industrial, power and renewables, and transportation and water markets; and operations, maintenance, and asset management solutions for various assets. It also offers services for clients across the nuclear life cycle from consultancy, engineering, procurement and construction management, field, technology, decommissioning, and waste management services, as well as spare parts; and new-build and full refurbishment services for reactors. In addition, the company is involved in installation of alternative current power substations, including expansions and electrification, notably through repetitive engineering, procurement and construction offerings for utilities, renewables and conventional generation, transportation, and data centers markets; and provision of lump-sum turnkey (LSTK) construction contracts for the mass transit projects. Further, it engages in developing projects, arranging financing, investing in equity, undertaking complex financial modeling, and managing its infrastructure investments, such as bridges and highways, mass transit systems, power facilities, energy infrastructure, water treatment plants, and social infrastructure. Additionally, it offers staff augmentation services. The company was formerly known as SNC-Lavalin Group Inc. and changed its name to AtkinsRéalis in September 2023. AtkinsRéalis Group Inc. was founded in 1911 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ATRL.TO reported revenue of C$11.0B in FY2025 versus C$7.3B in FY2021, a compound +10.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$2.6B in FY2025, compounding +40.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.3 % · buybacks/dilution −1.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ATRL screens 72% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AtkinsRéalis Group (TSX:ATRL) Could Be 25% Undervalued As Earnings Land
- AtkinsRéalis Group (TSX:ATRL) Is Up 5.9% After Nuclear Backlog Surge And Aggressive Buybacks - Has The Bull Case Changed?
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 816 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $620.06 | $143.92 | −77% |
| Vinci SA DG | €114.35 | €185.62 | +62% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,615 | $519.97 | −68% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | −46% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | €57.28 | €19.17 | −67% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €426.40 | €203.87 | −52% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 373,000 KRW | 261,411 KRW | −30% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $775.04 | $549.47 | −29% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $241.00 | $100.00 | −59% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €46.65 | €65.67 | +41% |
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