Api Group Corp (APG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $18.1B · ISIN US00187Y1001
What is Api Group Corp really worth?
Api Group Corp
APG · US
A solid business, but trading 222% above our fair value of $12.44.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −3.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($15.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.85 – $49.40 · fair‑value band $9.20 – $15.56 · the $40.03 price screens above the $12.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Api Group Corp (APG) currently trades at $40.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.44, implying the stock looks roughly 221.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.31 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $40.03 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.27, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Api Group Corp generated revenue of $8.2B at a net margin of 4.0%. Revenue grew 15.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.0%. Net debt stands at $2.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $9.20 (bear case) to $15.56 (bull case); at $40.03, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −69%, APG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($28.31) versus Asset-Based ($5.27). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
APi Group Corporation provides fire and life safety, security, elevator and escalator, and specialty services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Safety Services and Specialty Services.
Full company description
APi Group Corporation provides fire and life safety, security, elevator and escalator, and specialty services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Safety Services and Specialty Services. The company offers fire protection solutions; electronic security systems; and elevators and escalators, including the design, installation, inspection, service, and monitoring of life safety systems to high tech services, advanced manufacturing, healthcare, fulfillment and distribution centers, and critical infrastructure end markets. It also provides various specialty contracting, fabrication and distribution, and infrastructure and utility services to critical infrastructure, high tech services, and healthcare end markets. The company was formerly known as J2 Acquisition Limited and changed its name to APi Group Corporation in October 2019. APi Group Corporation was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in New Brighton, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Api Group Corp reported revenue of $7.9B in FY2025 versus $3.9B in FY2021, a compound +19.0%/yr. Reported net income was $302M in FY2025, compounding +59.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
APG screens 222% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 816 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $620.06 | $143.92 | −77% |
| Vinci SA DG | €114.35 | €185.62 | +62% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,615 | $519.97 | −68% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | −46% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | €57.28 | €19.17 | −67% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €426.40 | €203.87 | −52% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 373,000 KRW | 261,411 KRW | −30% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $775.04 | $549.47 | −29% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $241.00 | $100.00 | −59% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €46.65 | €65.67 | +41% |
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