Arcosa Inc (ACA) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $7.1B · ISIN US0396531008
What is Arcosa Inc really worth?
Arcosa Inc
ACA · US
A solid business, but trading 122% above our fair value of $65.65.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +0.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($108.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($43.26 to $108.53) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.15 – $145.49 · fair‑value band $43.26 – $108.53 · the $145.48 price screens above the $65.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Arcosa Inc (ACA) currently trades at $145.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.65, implying the stock looks roughly 121.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $72.58 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $145.48 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $35.99, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Arcosa Inc generated revenue of $2.9B at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $43.26 (bear case) to $108.53 (bull case); at $145.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 78% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −55%, ACA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.90 per share, which is 4.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($72.58) versus Dividend Discount ($3.10). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Arcosa, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides infrastructure-related products and solutions for the construction, engineered structures, and transportation markets in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Construction Products, Engineered Structures, and Transportation Products.
Full company description
Arcosa, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides infrastructure-related products and solutions for the construction, engineered structures, and transportation markets in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Construction Products, Engineered Structures, and Transportation Products. The Construction Products segment offers natural and recycled aggregates; specialty materials; and construction site support equipment, including trench shields and shoring products for residential and non-residential construction, and specialty and other products, as well as for infrastructure construction. The Engineered Structures segment offers utility structures, wind towers, traffic and lighting structures, and telecommunication structures for electricity transmission and distribution, wind power generation, highway road construction, and wireless communication markets. This segment also sells its products to contractors and distributors serving state Departments of Transportation and state and municipality agencies. The Transportation Products segment offers inland barges, fiberglass barge covers, winches, marine hardware, and other transportation and industrial equipment to the commercial marine transportation companies, lessors, and industrial shippers. Arcosa, Inc. was incorporated in 2018 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arcosa Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $2.0B in FY2021, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was $208M in FY2025, compounding +31.5%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.6 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ACA screens 122% overvalued. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Arcosa (ACA) Could Be 1% Undervalued As Valuation Debate Follows Q2 2026 Results
- Halper Sadeh LLC is Investigating Whether BZH, ACA, SYNA, CRNX are Obtaining Fair Deals for their Shareholders
- $HAREHOLDER ALERT: The M&A Class Action Firm Continues To Investigate The Merger—ACA, SYNA, FSRL, and CBAN
- Can CRH Gain From Its $8.5 Billion Arcosa Deal Despite Financing Risk?
Peer Group
Engineering & Construction · 816 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 25/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $620.06 | $143.92 | −77% |
| Vinci SA DG | €114.35 | €185.62 | +62% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,615 | $519.97 | −68% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹4,072 | ₹2,196 | −46% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | €57.28 | €19.17 | −67% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €426.40 | €203.87 | −52% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 373,000 KRW | 261,411 KRW | −30% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $775.04 | $549.47 | −29% |
| MasTec, Inc MTZ | $241.00 | $100.00 | −59% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €46.65 | €65.67 | +41% |
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