Bank of China Ltd H (3988) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$1.6T (≈ $210B) · ISIN CNE1000001Z5
What is Bank of China Ltd H really worth?
A solid business, trading 45% below our fair value of HK$11.01.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 22, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 22, 2026, revised from HK$10.41 to HK$11.01 (+5.8%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +15.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$8.26). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.88 – HK$6.07 · fair‑value band HK$8.26 – HK$13.76 · the HK$6.07 price screens below the HK$11.01 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 22, 2026.
Analysis
Bank of China Ltd H (3988) currently trades at HK$6.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$11.01, implying the stock looks roughly 44.9% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$9.62 per share, and 6 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$6.07 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.25, and 0 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Bank of China Ltd H generated revenue of HK$567B at a net margin of 43.3%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$1.5T. Fundamentals as of Aug 22, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$8.26 (bear case) to HK$13.76 (bull case); at HK$6.07, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 82%, 3988 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.2785 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$9.62) versus Asset-Based (HK$6.25). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 22, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 85
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial services in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury Operations, Investment Banking, Insurance, and Other.
Full company description
Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking and financial services in Chinese Mainland, Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and internationally. The company operates through six segments: Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, Treasury Operations, Investment Banking, Insurance, and Other. The Corporate Banking segment provides current accounts, deposits, overdrafts, loans, payments and settlements, trade-related products, and other credit facilities, as well as foreign currency, derivative, and wealth management products for corporate customers, government authorities, and financial institutions. The Personal Banking segment offers savings deposits, personal loans, credit cards and debit cards, payments and settlements, wealth management, and funds and insurance agency services to retail customers. The Treasury Operations segment offers foreign exchange transactions, customer-based interest rate, and foreign exchange derivative transactions, as well as money market transactions, proprietary trading, and asset and liability management. The Investment Banking segment provides debt and equity underwriting and financial advisory, sale and trading of securities, stock brokerage, investment research, asset management services, and private equity investment services. The Insurance segment provides underwriting services for general and life insurance business, and insurance agency services. In addition, it operates debt-to-equity swaps and other supporting, and aircraft and financial leasing business. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Bank of China Ltd H reported revenue of 1.2T CNY in FY2025 versus 503B CNY in FY2021, a compound +24.7%/yr. Reported net income was 243B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.4 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- What Makes Bank of China (BACHY) a New Buy Stock
- Has Bank of China (BACHY) Outpaced Other Finance Stocks This Year?
- Is Bank of China (SEHK:3988) Still Undervalued As Value Investors Revisit The Stock?
- Should Value Investors Buy Bank of China (BACHY) Stock?
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 22, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $354.22 | $217.97 | −38% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $61.17 | $50.87 | −17% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited 601398 | ¥7.86 | ¥14.44 | +84% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $103.14 | $75.89 | −26% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.79 | ¥12.94 | +91% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
| Citigroup Inc C | $132.90 | $117.65 | −11% |
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