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Arabian Drilling Company (2381) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · SA · Market cap 7.2B SAR (≈ $1.9B) · ISIN SA15L1I156H7

What is Arabian Drilling Company really worth?

AD Arabian Drilling Company 2381 · SR
Price96.05 SAR
Fair Value22.18 SAR
Upside−76.9%
Quality38/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Below-average quality, and trading another 333% above our fair value of 22.18 SAR.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +6.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.3% net margin
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 14/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Low Range 21.70 SAR – 45.30 SAR

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 11.09 SAR to 22.18 SAR (+100.0%) since Jul 31, 2026. Share price +16.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (45.30 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • A fairly wide model range (21.70 SAR to 45.30 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

200.36 SAR 72.40 SAR Fair Value 22.18 SAR Nov 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

46‑month range 72.40 SAR – 200.36 SAR · fair‑value band 21.70 SAR – 45.30 SAR · the 96.05 SAR price screens above the 22.18 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Arabian Drilling Company (2381) currently trades at 96.05 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.18 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 333.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 43.26 SAR per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the 96.05 SAR price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 4.55 SAR, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Arabian Drilling Company generated revenue of 3.3B SAR at a net margin of −4.3%. Revenue declined 9.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.4%. Net debt stands at 2.4B SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 21.70 SAR (bear case) to 45.30 SAR (bull case); at 96.05 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −77%, 2381 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (4.55 SAR to 61.38 SAR). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence 5.08 SAR 17.85 SAR 77
Growth DCF 4.55 SAR 15.43 SAR 75
Owner Earnings 10.50 SAR 25.72 SAR 73
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence 5.08 SAR 17.85 SAR 77
Owner Earnings 10.50 SAR 25.72 SAR 73
5Y Revenue Exit 0.0400 SAR 14.04 SAR 31.67 SAR 63
5Y EBITDA Exit 19.22 SAR 49.04 SAR 83.38 SAR 72
10Y Revenue Exit 9.69 SAR 25.46 SAR 64
10Y EBITDA Exit 10.17 SAR 33.14 SAR 63.18 SAR 63
Earnings-Based
EPV 1.03 SAR 4.84 SAR 8.13 SAR 66
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 11.84 SAR 23.59 SAR 35.72 SAR 67
DDM Multi-Stage 11.84 SAR 18.24 SAR 24.76 SAR 66
Multiples
EV/EBIT 6.53 SAR 13.94 SAR 61
EV/EBITDA 40.26 SAR 61.38 SAR 82.51 SAR 66
EV/Revenue 3.86 SAR 15.42 SAR 26.98 SAR 49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 32.28 SAR 43.26 SAR 64.56 SAR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 4.55 SAR 15.43 SAR 75
Rev-Margin DCF 0.0400 SAR 14.06 SAR 29.58 SAR 64
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 1.03 SAR 4.84 SAR 8.13 SAR 66

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (43.26 SAR) versus Growth DCF (4.55 SAR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 2.15 TTM
EPS (TTM) −1.61 SAR
Dividend yield 1.7%
Net margin −2.2% FY2025
Return on equity −2.4% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 7.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 3.3B SAR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −9.8% 3y avg +8.3%
EPS growth (YoY) −90.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 163M SAR FY2025
Net debt 2.4B SAR FY2025 · ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 47
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 62
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 58
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 66
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Arabian Drilling Company operates as an onshore and offshore gas and oil rig drilling company in Saudi Arabia. The company's services include the supply of drilling services in shallow and deep waters and on land for the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, as well as well intervention and testing, rig move, mobilisation, manpower, and other …

Full company description

Arabian Drilling Company operates as an onshore and offshore gas and oil rig drilling company in Saudi Arabia. The company's services include the supply of drilling services in shallow and deep waters and on land for the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, as well as well intervention and testing, rig move, mobilisation, manpower, and other services. Arabian Drilling Company was founded in 1964 and is based in Al Khobar, Saudi Arabia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Arabian Drilling Company reported revenue of 3.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 2.2B SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was −75.3M SAR in FY2025.

Growth Quality 32/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
3.4B SAR
Latest YoY
−5.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (7Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.9%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue +11.8%/yr
FY21 2.2B SAR
FY22 2.7B SAR
FY23 3.5B SAR
FY24 3.6B SAR
FY25 3.4B SAR
Net income
FY21 274M SAR
FY22 558M SAR
FY23 605M SAR
FY24 321M SAR
FY25 −75.3M SAR

2381 screens 333% overvalued. Compare with Noble Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Arabian Drilling Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/2381

Peer Group

Oil & Gas Drilling · 34 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 38 · Below median
Fair Value upside −77% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth −10% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.46× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.33× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.57× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 11.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 4.0× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE0 · sector 0
PAST0 · sector 20
HEALTH77 · sector 81
DIVIDEND33 · sector 29

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Noble Corporation NE $45.76 $23.09 −50%
Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation 600871 ¥2.22 ¥0.4900 −78%
Transocean Ltd RIG $5.70 $2.16 −62%
Valaris Limited VAL $85.21 $58.91 −31%
Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN $12.13 $12.20 +1%
Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP $42.55 $9.25 −78%
Seadrill Limited SDRL $46.72 $10.17 −78%
Odfjell Drilling Ltd ODL kr 95.30 kr 53.75 −44%
Borr Drilling Limited BORR kr 41.63 kr 26.64 −36%
Nabors Industries Ltd NBR $91.71 $209.14 +128%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Arabian Drilling Company (2381) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 22.18 SAR versus a price of 96.05 SAR, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 2381?
Our model-based fair value for Arabian Drilling Company is 22.18 SAR (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 96.05 SAR.
What is the quality score of 2381?
Arabian Drilling Company has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Arabian Drilling Company (2381)?
Arabian Drilling Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 3.3B SAR (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 2381?
The net profit margin of Arabian Drilling Company is about −4.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Arabian Drilling Company pay a dividend?
Arabian Drilling Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.67% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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