Arabian Drilling Company (2381) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · SA · Market cap 7.2B SAR (≈ $1.9B) · ISIN SA15L1I156H7
What is Arabian Drilling Company really worth?
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 333% above our fair value of 22.18 SAR.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 11.09 SAR to 22.18 SAR (+100.0%) since Jul 31, 2026. Share price +16.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (45.30 SAR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range (21.70 SAR to 45.30 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
46‑month range 72.40 SAR – 200.36 SAR · fair‑value band 21.70 SAR – 45.30 SAR · the 96.05 SAR price screens above the 22.18 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Arabian Drilling Company (2381) currently trades at 96.05 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 22.18 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 333.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 43.26 SAR per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the 96.05 SAR price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 4.55 SAR, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Arabian Drilling Company generated revenue of 3.3B SAR at a net margin of −4.3%. Revenue declined 9.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.4%. Net debt stands at 2.4B SAR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 21.70 SAR (bear case) to 45.30 SAR (bull case); at 96.05 SAR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −77%, 2381 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (43.26 SAR) versus Growth DCF (4.55 SAR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 40 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Arabian Drilling Company operates as an onshore and offshore gas and oil rig drilling company in Saudi Arabia. The company's services include the supply of drilling services in shallow and deep waters and on land for the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, as well as well intervention and testing, rig move, mobilisation, manpower, and other …
Full company description
Arabian Drilling Company operates as an onshore and offshore gas and oil rig drilling company in Saudi Arabia. The company's services include the supply of drilling services in shallow and deep waters and on land for the exploration and production of oil and natural gas, as well as well intervention and testing, rig move, mobilisation, manpower, and other services. Arabian Drilling Company was founded in 1964 and is based in Al Khobar, Saudi Arabia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Arabian Drilling Company reported revenue of 3.4B SAR in FY2025 versus 2.2B SAR in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was −75.3M SAR in FY2025.
2381 screens 333% overvalued. Compare with Noble Corporation →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Drilling · 34 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Drilling median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Corporation NE | $45.76 | $23.09 | −50% |
| Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation 600871 | ¥2.22 | ¥0.4900 | −78% |
| Transocean Ltd RIG | $5.70 | $2.16 | −62% |
| Valaris Limited VAL | $85.21 | $58.91 | −31% |
| Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN | $12.13 | $12.20 | +1% |
| Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP | $42.55 | $9.25 | −78% |
| Seadrill Limited SDRL | $46.72 | $10.17 | −78% |
| Odfjell Drilling Ltd ODL | kr 95.30 | kr 53.75 | −44% |
| Borr Drilling Limited BORR | kr 41.63 | kr 26.64 | −36% |
| Nabors Industries Ltd NBR | $91.71 | $209.14 | +128% |
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