Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · HK · Market cap HK$2.5T (≈ $314B) · ISIN CNE1000003G1
What is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China really worth?
A solid business, trading 49% below our fair value of HK$14.95.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 21, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 15 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 21, 2026, revised from HK$14.32 to HK$14.95 (+4.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +6.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$11.21). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$2.59 – HK$7.70 · fair‑value band HK$11.21 – HK$18.69 · the HK$7.70 price screens below the HK$14.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 21, 2026.
Analysis
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398) currently trades at HK$7.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$14.95, implying the stock looks roughly 48.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of HK$13.10 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the HK$7.70 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$6.77, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China generated revenue of HK$673B at a net margin of 55.2%. Revenue grew 3.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.9%. Net debt stands at HK$6.6T. Fundamentals as of Aug 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$11.21 (bear case) to HK$18.69 (bull case); at HK$7.70, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 94%, 1398 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.3510 per share, which is 2.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (HK$13.10) versus Dividend Discount (HK$6.77). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Notify me when 1398 reaches fair value
Put 1398 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments.
Full company description
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking products and services in the People's Republic of China and internationally. It operates through Corporate Banking, Personal Banking, and Treasury Operations segments. The Corporate Banking segment offers corporate loans, trade financing, deposit-taking activities, corporate wealth management services, custody services, and various types of corporate intermediary services, as well as corporate loans to corporations, government agencies, and financial institutions. Its Personal Banking segment provides personal loans, deposit-taking activities, card business, personal wealth management services, and various types of personal intermediary services to individual customers. The Treasury Operations segment engages in money market transactions, investment securities, and foreign exchange transaction activities. In addition, the company is involved in the fund raising, fund sales, asset management, and other businesses; financial leasing; insurance businesses, such as life, health, and accident insurance, as well as reinsurance; debt-for-equity swaps; and issuance of wealth management products, wealth management advisory, and consulting services. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China reported revenue of 1.5T CNY in FY2025 versus 658B CNY in FY2021, a compound +23.5%/yr. Reported net income was 359B CNY in FY2025, compounding +0.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch 1398: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Here's What Could Help Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) Maintain Its Recent Price Strength
- Is Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) Stock Undervalued Right Now?
- The Zacks Analyst Blog Highlights SpaceX, United Health, The Goldman Sachs and Industrial and Commercial Bank
- Should Value Investors Buy Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (IDCBY) Stock?
Peer Group
Banks - Diversified · 48 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| JPMorgan Chase & Co JPM | $354.22 | $217.97 | −38% |
| Bank of America Corporation BAC | $61.17 | $50.87 | −17% |
| China Construction Bank Corporation 601939 | ¥10.55 | ¥18.21 | +73% |
| HSBC Holdings HSBC | $103.14 | $75.89 | −26% |
| Agricultural Bank of China Limited 601288 | ¥6.79 | ¥12.94 | +91% |
| Royal Bank of Canada RY | C$283.11 | C$151.80 | −46% |
| Bank of China Limited 601988 | ¥6.14 | ¥11.24 | +83% |
| Wells Fargo & Company WFC | $86.69 | $79.60 | −8% |
| Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group MUFG | $22.90 | $20.50 | −10% |
| Citigroup Inc C | $132.90 | $117.65 | −11% |
Compare Industrial and Commercial Bank of China with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Financial Services stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 1398?
What is the quality score of 1398?
What is the revenue of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (1398)?
What is the net profit margin of 1398?
Does Industrial and Commercial Bank of China pay a dividend?
Watch Industrial and Commercial Bank of China in the live analysis
One click puts Industrial and Commercial Bank of China on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.