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Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $8.0B · ISIN US35969L1089

What is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR really worth?

FT Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR logo Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR YMM · US
Price$8.58
Fair Value$19.70
Upside+129.6%
Quality76/100

A strong business, trading 56% below our fair value of $19.70.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +37.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 32.7% net margin
✓generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (9/10)
✓Wide moat 70/100

Risks

!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 28 out of 100

For context

·2.15% dividend yield
Evidence: Medium Range $13.04 – $24.62

Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 31, 2026, revised from $19.64 to $19.70 (+0.3%) since Aug 18, 2026. Share price −11.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
  • The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • A fairly wide model range ($13.04 to $24.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$20.54 $4.44 Fair Value $19.70 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.44 – $20.54 · fair‑value band $13.04 – $24.62 · the $8.58 price screens below the $19.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.

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Analysis

Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM) currently trades at $8.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $19.70, implying the stock looks roughly 56.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $186.03 per share, and 26 of the 26 models we run sit above the $8.58 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $23.11, and 0 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR generated revenue of $12.6B at a net margin of 32.7%. Revenue grew 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $6.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $13.04 (bear case) to $24.62 (bull case); at $8.58, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 130%, YMM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $83.29 $124.68 $253.74 74
Residual Income $38.18 $42.97 $74.17 74
Growth DCF $78.62 $136.08 $248.54 72
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $83.29 $124.68 $253.74 74
Owner Earnings $76.30 $161.10 $332.56 68
5Y Revenue Exit $60.52 $97.11 $173.45 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $73.90 $124.16 $222.65 69
5Y P/E Exit $101.81 $224.84 $393.43 65
10Y Revenue Exit $66.44 $131.09 $170.12 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $77.74 $159.25 $299.53 62
10Y P/E Exit $97.65 $217.97 $417.77 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $32.15 $224.17 $314.60 63
Lynch FV $92.79 $132.55 $172.32 61
PEG = 1.0 $92.79 $132.55 $172.32 57
EPV $37.95 $42.90 $47.17 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $13.42 $26.74 $40.50 67
DDM Multi-Stage $13.42 $23.11 $28.23 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $99.27 $132.36 $165.45 63
P/S Multiple $55.25 $73.67 $92.08 58
P/B Multiple $60.27 $80.36 $100.45 55
EV/EBIT $86.62 $113.30 $139.97 63
EV/EBITDA $68.06 $88.55 $109.04 64
EV/Revenue $47.05 $64.39 $81.73 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $21.48 $28.78 $42.96 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $78.62 $136.08 $248.54 72
Rev-Margin DCF $62.45 $110.17 $202.88 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income $38.18 $42.97 $74.17 74
ROIC Compounder $37.95 $42.90 $53.62 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $130.22 $186.03 $241.83 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($186.03) versus Dividend Discount ($23.11). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 12.9 as of Jun 25, 2026
P/S ratio 4.56 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.5900 price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9
Dividend yield 2.2% payout 31.3%
Net margin 35.3% FY2025
Return on equity 10.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 35.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $12.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.5% 3y avg +22.9%
EPS growth (YoY) −20.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $4.5B FY2025
Net cash $6.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 76/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 51
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 57
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 84
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 79
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 8
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong.

Full company description

Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, operates a digital freight platform that connects shippers with truckers to facilitate shipments across distance ranges, cargo weights, and types in the People's Republic of China and Hong Kong. The company offers freight matching services, such as freight listing and brokerage services; and transaction services, as well as various value-added services, such as credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software solutions, electronic toll collection, Intelligent Driving Related Services, and energy services. It also provides technology development and other services. Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. was founded in 2011 and is based in Guiyang, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR reported revenue of 12.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.7B CNY in FY2021, a compound +28.0%/yr. Reported net income was 4.4B CNY in FY2025.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$12.5B
Latest YoY
+11.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+37.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (6Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+31.0%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+52.8% (50.6 + 2.2)
Revenue +28.0%/yr
FY21 4.7B CNY
FY22 6.7B CNY
FY23 8.4B CNY
FY24 11.2B CNY
FY25 12.5B CNY
Net income
FY21 −3.7B CNY
FY22 407M CNY
FY23 2.2B CNY
FY24 3.1B CNY
FY25 4.4B CNY

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Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR · Fair Value
$19.70 +56%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/YMM

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Software - Application · 691 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +130% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 10% · Above median
Return on assets 6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 33% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 35% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Above median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.9× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 0
FUTURE28 · sector 37
PAST42 · sector 12
HEALTH0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND43 · sector 28

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Frequently asked questions

Is Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $19.70 versus a price of $8.58, about +130% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of YMM?
Our model-based fair value for Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR is $19.70 (as of Aug 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.58.
What is the quality score of YMM?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR (YMM)?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 31, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of YMM?
The net profit margin of Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR is about 32.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 32.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Full Truck Alliance Co Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.15% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 31, 2026).
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