Shopify Inc (SHOP) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $160B · ISIN CA82509L1076
What is Shopify Inc really worth?
Shopify Inc
SHOP · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 528% above our fair value of $23.23.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +18.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $25.67 – $179.01 · fair‑value band $17.70 – $28.76 · the $145.88 price screens above the $23.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.
Analysis
Shopify Inc (SHOP) currently trades at $145.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.23, implying the stock looks roughly 528.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $51.01 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $145.88 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.40, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shopify Inc generated revenue of $12.4B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 34.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.70 (bear case) to $28.76 (bull case); at $145.88, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −84%, SHOP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.6970 per share, which is 3.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($51.01) versus Asset-Based ($7.40). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
Full company description
Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The Company offers Shopify platform that enables merchants to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics, and reporting and access financing for running their business across all of their sales channels, including web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces. It also provides Shopify Payments, a fully integrated payment processing service that allows merchants to accept and process payment cards online and offline. In addition, the company engages in the sale of themes and apps; shipping labels through Shopify Shipping; point-of-sale hardware; advertising on the Shopify App Store; and Shop Campaigns for buyer acquisitions, as well as registration of domain names. The company was formerly known as Jaded Pixel Technologies Inc. and changed its name to Shopify Inc. in November 2011. Shopify Inc. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Ottawa, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shopify Inc reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2025 versus $4.6B in FY2021, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2025, compounding −19.4%/yr from FY2021.
SHOP screens 528% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ecommerce Evolution: Shopify’s (SHOP) AI-Driven Approach to Retail Success
- Shopify (SHOP) Stock Looks Above Fair Value On Cash Flow And Earnings
- Appian, C3.ai, Palo Alto Networks, Rapid7, and Shopify Shares Are Falling, What You Need To Know
- Amazon vs. Shopify: Which Consumer Stock Is a Better Buy in 2026?
Peer Group
Software - Application · 691 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAP | €191.32 | €169.59 | −11% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $78.82 | $43.66 | −45% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $252.05 | $249.28 | −1% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $138.43 | $43.73 | −68% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $340.39 | $112.57 | −67% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $329.11 | $42.27 | −87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $289.15 | $454.04 | +57% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $284.68 | $177.51 | −38% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $348.00 | $363.46 | +4% |
| Autodesk, Inc ADSK | $260.66 | $149.05 | −43% |
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