Autodesk Inc (ADSK) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $46.1B · ISIN US0527691069
What is Autodesk Inc really worth?
Autodesk Inc
ADSK · US
A strong business, but trading 59% above our fair value of $149.05.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +0.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($186.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $164.31 – $342.27 · fair‑value band $111.79 – $186.32 · the $237.52 price screens above the $149.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Autodesk Inc (ADSK) currently trades at $237.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $149.05, implying the stock looks roughly 59.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $198.68 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $237.52 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $36.64, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Autodesk Inc generated revenue of $7.5B at a net margin of 19.5%. Revenue grew 18.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 50.4%. Net debt stands at $485M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $111.79 (bear case) to $186.32 (bull case); at $237.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −37%, ADSK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.08 per share, which is 2.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($198.68) versus Asset-Based ($9.66). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Autodesk, Inc. engages in the provision of 3D design, engineering, and entertainment technology solutions worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution; Autodesk Build, a toolset for managing, sharing, and accessing project documents for streamlined workflows between the office, trailer, and …
Full company description
Autodesk, Inc. engages in the provision of 3D design, engineering, and entertainment technology solutions worldwide. The company offers AutoCAD Civil 3D, a surveying, design, analysis, and documentation solution; Autodesk Build, a toolset for managing, sharing, and accessing project documents for streamlined workflows between the office, trailer, and jobsite; Revit, a software built for building information modeling to help professionals design, build, and maintain energy-efficient buildings; Autodesk BIM Collaborate Pro, cloud-based design collaboration and design management software; BuildingConnected, a SaaS preconstruction solution; and Tandem, a cloud-based platform that transforms the built asset lifecycle. It also provides AutoCAD software, a customizable and extensible CAD application for professional design, drafting, detailing, and visualization; AutoCAD LT, a drafting and detailing software; Fusion, a 3D CAD, computer-aided manufacturing, and computer-aided engineering tool; Inventor, a software solution that offers a set of tools for 3D mechanical design, simulation, analysis, tooling, visualization, and documentation; product design and manufacturing collection tools; and Vault, a data management software for managing data in one central location, accelerate design processes, and streamline internal/external collaboration. The company offers Flow Production Tracking, a cloud-based production management software; Maya software that offers 3D modeling, animation, effects, rendering, and compositing solutions for film and video artists, game developers, and design visualization professionals; Media and Entertainment Collection that offers end-to-end creative tools for entertainment creation; and 3ds Max software, which provides 3D modeling, animation, and rendering solutions. It sells its products and services through a network of resellers and distributors. Autodesk, Inc. was incorporated in 1982 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Autodesk Inc reported revenue of $7.2B in FY2026 versus $4.4B in FY2022, a compound +13.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2026, compounding +22.6%/yr from FY2022.
ADSK screens 59% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Autodesk (ADSK) Q2 Beat Meets Softer Q3 Profit Outlook
- Autodesk (ADSK) Grew Revenue 16% but Remaining Performance Obligations Rose Only 2%
- Why Autodesk (ADSK) Shares Are Sliding Today
- ADSK Q2 Deep Dive: AI Strategy, Operations Expansion, and Evolving Business Model
Peer Group
Software - Application · 690 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAP | €191.32 | €169.59 | −11% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | −86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $78.82 | $43.66 | −45% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $252.05 | $249.28 | −1% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $138.43 | $43.73 | −68% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $340.39 | $112.57 | −67% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $329.11 | $42.27 | −87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $289.15 | $454.04 | +57% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $284.68 | $177.51 | −38% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $348.00 | $363.46 | +4% |
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