Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (VNM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · VN · Market cap 123T VND
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 68,259 VND to 52,858 VND (−22.6%) since Jul 20, 2026. Share price +9.6% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 14% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from 42,199 VND (bear) to 72,153 VND (bull), base 52,858 VND. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 76/100 (high quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 46,717 VND – 73,193 VND · fair‑value band 42,199 VND – 72,153 VND · the 61,600 VND price screens above the 52,858 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company (VNM) currently trades at 61,600 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 52,858 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 14.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company generated revenue of 66.8T VND at a net margin of 15.4%. Revenue grew 24.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.7%. Net debt stands at 7.7T VND. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 42,199 VND (bear case) to 72,153 VND (bull case); at 61,600 VND, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -6% fair-value upside, at -14%, VNM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (76,544 VND) versus Asset-Based (9,837 VND). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company provides milk and dairy products in Vietnam and internationally. The company processes, manufactures, and distributes milk cake, soya and fresh milk, refreshment drinks, bottled and powdered milk, nutritious powder, and other milk products; and products for pregnant and infant, baby food, spoon yogurt, yoghurt and …
Full company description
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company provides milk and dairy products in Vietnam and internationally. The company processes, manufactures, and distributes milk cake, soya and fresh milk, refreshment drinks, bottled and powdered milk, nutritious powder, and other milk products; and products for pregnant and infant, baby food, spoon yogurt, yoghurt and juicy milk drink, condensed and plant-based milk, ice cream, sugar, and cheese products, as well as nutritional products for adult. It is also involved in trading of food technology, spare parts, equipment, materials, and chemicals; trading in real estate properties, warehouses, and yards; owning or leasing land use rights; provision of internal transportation by cars for manufacturing and consuming company's products; manufacture, sale, and distribution of beverages, grocery and processing food, and roasted-ground-filtered and instant coffee; and manufacture and sale of plastic packaging products. In addition, the company engages in the provision of healthcare clinic services; cattle raising and cultivation activities; and retail sale of milk and products from milk, bread, jam, candy, and products processed from cereal, flour, starch, and other food. Further, it processes beef products; sugar producing and refining activity; livestock raising and agricultural products trading; and manufactures, raises, processes, and trades in cattle and poultry products. The company was formerly known as Vietnam Milk Company and changed its name to Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company in November 2003. Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vietnam Dairy Products Joint Stock Company reported revenue of 63.6T VND in FY2025 versus 60.9T VND in FY2021, a compound +1.1%/yr. Reported net income was 9.4T VND in FY2025, compounding −2.8%/yr from FY2021.
VNM screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Nestlé India Limited →
Peer Group
Packaged Foods · 652 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Packaged Foods stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nestlé India Limited NESTLEIND | ₹1,507 | ₹362.37 | -76% |
| Britannia Industries Limited BRITANNIA | ₹5,646 | ₹1,870 | -67% |
| Tata Consumer Products Limited TATACONSUM | ₹1,062 | ₹327.27 | -69% |
| PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk ICBP | 7,550 IDR | 12,864 IDR | +70% |
| Samyang Foods Co 003230 | 1,219,000 KRW | 1,010,543 KRW | -17% |
| Patanjali Foods Limited PATANJALI | ₹352.60 | ₹144.77 | -59% |
| PT Mayora Indah Tbk, MYOR | 1,665 IDR | 2,699 IDR | +62% |
| PT Cisarua Mountain Dairy Tbk CMRY | 4,630 IDR | 4,350 IDR | -6% |
| Nongshim Co 004370 | 389,500 KRW | 530,619 KRW | +36% |
| PT Siantar Top Tbk, STTP | 9,625 IDR | 14,583 IDR | +52% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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