Veracyte Inc (VCYT) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $4.5B · ISIN US92337F1075
What is Veracyte Inc really worth?
Veracyte Inc
VCYT · US
A solid business, but trading 144% above our fair value of $18.29.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −3.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($22.87). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $15.31 – $60.49 · fair‑value band $13.72 – $22.87 · the $44.67 price screens above the $18.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Veracyte Inc (VCYT) currently trades at $44.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.29, implying the stock looks roughly 144.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $37.42 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $44.67 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $11.00, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Veracyte Inc generated revenue of $542M at a net margin of 16.3%. Revenue grew 21.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $323M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.72 (bear case) to $22.87 (bull case); at $44.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 98% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −59%, VCYT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7308 per share, which is 4.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($37.42) versus Dividend Discount ($0.6000). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Veracyte, Inc. operates as a diagnostics company in the United States and internationally. The company offers Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier for cancerous thyroid nodules; Decipher Prostate Genomic Classifiers for prostate cancer diagnosis; Decipher Bladder Genomic Classifier for bladder cancer diagnosis; Prosigna Breast Cancer Assay for breast cancer …
Full company description
Veracyte, Inc. operates as a diagnostics company in the United States and internationally. The company offers Afirma Genomic Sequencing Classifier for cancerous thyroid nodules; Decipher Prostate Genomic Classifiers for prostate cancer diagnosis; Decipher Bladder Genomic Classifier for bladder cancer diagnosis; Prosigna Breast Cancer Assay for breast cancer diagnosis; and Percepta Nasal Swab Test for lung cancer diagnosis. It also provides the nCounter analysis system services. The company was formerly known as Calderome, Inc. and changed its name to Veracyte, Inc. in March 2008. Veracyte, Inc. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Veracyte Inc reported revenue of $517M in FY2025 versus $220M in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was $66.4M in FY2025.
VCYT screens 144% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →
Peer Group
Diagnostics & Research · 130 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO | $630.70 | $308.19 | −51% |
| Danaher Corporation DHR | $215.68 | $103.88 | −52% |
| WuXi AppTec Co 2359 | HK$189.30 | HK$150.16 | −21% |
| Lonza Group LONN | CHF 576.60 | CHF 259.80 | −55% |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX | $556.69 | $255.77 | −54% |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc A | $149.93 | $61.53 | −59% |
| Waters Corporation WAT | $416.15 | $121.96 | −71% |
| IQVIA Holdings IQV | $236.66 | $132.17 | −44% |
| Illumina, Inc ILMN | $215.59 | $95.51 | −56% |
| Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD | $1,419 | $615.78 | −57% |
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