Lonza Group AG (LONN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · CH · Market cap CHF 39.7B · ISIN CH0013841017
What is Lonza Group AG really worth?
A solid business, but trading 118% above our fair value of CHF 259.80.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +1.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (CHF 337.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (CHF 181.86 to CHF 337.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 303.80 – CHF 756.42 · fair‑value band CHF 181.86 – CHF 337.74 · the CHF 567.20 price screens above the CHF 259.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Lonza Group AG (LONN) currently trades at CHF 567.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 259.80, implying the stock looks roughly 118.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of CHF 259.80 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the CHF 567.20 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at CHF 50.97, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Lonza Group AG generated revenue of CHF 6.5B at a net margin of −4.2%. Revenue grew 17.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.5%. Net debt stands at CHF 3.5B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from CHF 181.86 (bear case) to CHF 337.74 (bull case); at CHF 567.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −54%, LONN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly CHF 5.42 per share, which is 2.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (CHF 259.80) versus DCF Models (CHF 50.97). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments.
Full company description
Lonza Group AG, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a contract development and manufacturing organization for pharma and biotech companies in Europe, North and Central America, Latin America, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. It operates through Integrated Biologics; Advanced Synthesis; and Specialized Modalities segments. The Integrated Biologics segment offers CDMO biologics services from clinical development, drug substance, and drug product manufacturing; and operates mammalian and drug product platforms. Its Advanced Synthesis segment manufactures antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and other bioconjugates, small molecules, and highly potent active pharmaceutical ingredients; and operates small molecules and bioconjugates platforms. The Specialized Modalities segment operates various technologies, such as spanning cell & gene, microbial, bioscience, and mRNA. Lonza Group AG was incorporated in 1897 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Lonza Group AG reported revenue of CHF 6.5B in FY2025 versus CHF 5.4B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 949M in FY2025, compounding −24.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.2 % · buybacks/dilution −3.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
LONN screens 118% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →
Peer Group
Diagnostics & Research · 130 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO | $630.70 | $308.19 | −51% |
| Danaher Corporation DHR | $215.68 | $103.88 | −52% |
| WuXi AppTec Co 2359 | HK$189.30 | HK$150.16 | −21% |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX | $556.69 | $255.77 | −54% |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc A | $149.93 | $61.53 | −59% |
| Waters Corporation WAT | $416.15 | $121.96 | −71% |
| IQVIA Holdings IQV | $236.66 | $132.17 | −44% |
| Illumina, Inc ILMN | $215.59 | $95.51 | −56% |
| Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD | $1,419 | $615.78 | −57% |
| Quest Diagnostics Incorporated DGX | $242.76 | $162.50 | −33% |
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