Illumina Inc (ILMN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $28.2B · ISIN US4523271090
What is Illumina Inc really worth?
Illumina Inc
ILMN · US
A strong business, but trading 132% above our fair value of $95.51.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +9.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($119.38). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $70.30 – $510.54 · fair‑value band $71.20 – $119.38 · the $221.66 price screens above the $95.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Illumina Inc (ILMN) currently trades at $221.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $95.51, implying the stock looks roughly 132.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $162.49 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $221.66 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.06, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Illumina Inc generated revenue of $4.4B at a net margin of 19.4%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $71.20 (bear case) to $119.38 (bull case); at $221.66, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 168% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −52% fair-value upside, at −57%, ILMN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.74 per share, which is 3.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($162.49) versus Asset-Based ($12.06). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Illumina, Inc. provides sequencing- and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis in the Americas, Europe, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa.
Full company description
Illumina, Inc. provides sequencing- and array-based solutions for genetic and genomic analysis in the Americas, Europe, Greater China, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. The company offers sequencing- and array-based instruments and consumables, which include reagents, flow cells, and library preparation; whole-genome sequencing kits, which sequence entire genomes of various size and complexity; and targeted resequencing kits, which sequence exomes, specific genes, and RNA or other genomic regions of interest. It also provides whole-genome sequencing, genotyping, noninvasive prenatal testing, and product support services. The company serves genomic research centers, academic institutions, government laboratories, and hospitals, as well as pharmaceutical, biotechnology, commercial molecular diagnostic laboratories, and consumer genomics companies. The company markets and distributes its products directly to customers, as well as through life-science distributors. The company has a collaboration with Labcorp Holdings Inc. for the development of oncology treatments through applications of sequencing solutions across the healthcare ecosystem; and strategic collaboration with Integrated DNA Technologies to enable a DRAGEN, secondary analysis pipeline for IDT xGena, FFPE and cfDNA next generation sequencing (NGS) library preparation with custom panels, delivering an integrated, end-to-end solution for somatic oncology research. It also has a data partnership with Center for Data-Driven Discovery in Biomedicine to advance research in pediatric cancer and rare disease. Illumina, Inc. was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Illumina Inc reported revenue of $4.3B in FY2025 versus $4.5B in FY2021, a compound −1.1%/yr. Reported net income was $850M in FY2025, compounding +2.8%/yr from FY2021.
ILMN screens 132% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →
Peer Group
Diagnostics & Research · 130 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO | $630.70 | $308.19 | −51% |
| Danaher Corporation DHR | $215.68 | $103.88 | −52% |
| WuXi AppTec Co 2359 | HK$189.30 | HK$150.16 | −21% |
| Lonza Group LONN | CHF 576.60 | CHF 259.80 | −55% |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX | $556.69 | $255.77 | −54% |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc A | $149.93 | $61.53 | −59% |
| Waters Corporation WAT | $416.15 | $121.96 | −71% |
| IQVIA Holdings IQV | $236.66 | $132.17 | −44% |
| Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD | $1,419 | $615.78 | −57% |
| Quest Diagnostics Incorporated DGX | $242.76 | $162.50 | −33% |
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