SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $2.2B · ISIN US78463M1071
What is SPS Commerce Inc really worth?
SPS Commerce Inc
SPSC · US
A solid business, but trading 18% above our fair value of $71.19.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $50.85 to $71.19 (+40.0%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price +13.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $49.91 – $215.42 · fair‑value band $53.39 – $88.98 · the $84.21 price screens above the $71.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
SPS Commerce Inc (SPSC) currently trades at $84.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $71.19, implying the stock looks roughly 18.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $110.53 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $84.21 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $17.77, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, SPS Commerce Inc generated revenue of $762M at a net margin of 11.9%. Revenue grew 5.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $141M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $53.39 (bear case) to $88.98 (bull case); at $84.21, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −15%, SPSC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.63 per share, which is 2.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($110.53) versus Asset-Based ($17.77). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions in the United States. It offers solutions through SPS Commerce, a cloud-based platform that connects retailers, brands, distributors, manufacturers, and logistics providers, handling the complexity of modern commerce operations.
Full company description
SPS Commerce, Inc. provides cloud-based supply chain management solutions in the United States. It offers solutions through SPS Commerce, a cloud-based platform that connects retailers, brands, distributors, manufacturers, and logistics providers, handling the complexity of modern commerce operations. The company also provides Fulfillment, a comprehensive solution designed to streamline supply chain operation that sends and receives order data, ensuring accurate execution of required processes from order to invoicing and revenue recovery through fully automated operations; and Analytics product that simplifies managing sell-through data from customers business partners that handle data acquisition, cleansing, normalization, and delivery. In addition, it offers various complimentary products, such as assortment product, which simplifies the communication of robust, accurate item data by automatically translating item attributes, and hierarchies through single connection across all sales channels; and relationship management product that allows organizations to accelerate digitization of their supply chain and improve collaboration with suppliers through change management, onboarding programs, and supplier score carding. The company was formerly known as St. Paul Software, Inc. and changed its name to SPS Commerce, Inc. in May 2001. SPS Commerce, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SPS Commerce Inc reported revenue of $752M in FY2025 versus $385M in FY2021, a compound +18.2%/yr. Reported net income was $93.3M in FY2025, compounding +20.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +16.7 % · buybacks/dilution −1.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SPSC screens 18% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 691 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAP | €191.32 | €169.59 | −11% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | −86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $78.82 | $43.66 | −45% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $252.05 | $249.28 | −1% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $138.43 | $43.73 | −68% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $340.39 | $112.57 | −67% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $329.11 | $42.27 | −87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $289.15 | $454.04 | +57% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $284.68 | $177.51 | −38% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $348.00 | $363.46 | +4% |
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