Roblox Corp (RBLX) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $40.9B · ISIN US7710491033
What is Roblox Corp really worth?
Roblox Corp
RBLX · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 96% above our fair value of $21.20.
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +12.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.76). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($14.65 to $27.76) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.19 – $141.56 · fair‑value band $14.65 – $27.76 · the $41.51 price screens above the $21.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Roblox Corp (RBLX) currently trades at $41.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.20, implying the stock looks roughly 95.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $51.46 per share, and 3 of the 7 models we run sit above the $41.51 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $22.16, and 4 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Roblox Corp generated revenue of $5.3B at a net margin of −20.7%. Revenue grew 39.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $431M. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.65 (bear case) to $27.76 (bull case); at $41.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 72% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −49%, RBLX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($51.46) versus Asset-Based ($0.3900). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 11
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Roblox Corporation operates an immersive platform for connection and communication in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Roblox Corporation operates an immersive platform for connection and communication in the United States and internationally. It offers Roblox Client, an application that allows users to explore immersive experience; Roblox Studio, a free toolset that allows developers and creators to build, publish, and operate immersive experiences and other content; and Roblox Cloud, which provides services and infrastructure that power the platform. Roblox Corporation was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Roblox Corp reported revenue of $4.9B in FY2025 versus $1.9B in FY2021, a compound +26.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$1.1B in FY2025.
RBLX screens 96% overvalued. Compare with Konami Group →
Peer Group
Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 150 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Electronic Gaming & Multimedia median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Konami Group KNM | £221.05 | £71.97 | −67% |
| NetEase, Inc 9999 | HK$188.80 | HK$263.39 | +40% |
| Electronic Arts Inc EA | $209.70 | $76.57 | −63% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc TTWO | $233.00 | $60.20 | −74% |
| Zhejiang Century Huatong Group 002602 | ¥13.90 | ¥14.68 | +6% |
| KRAFTON, Inc 259960 | 234,500 KRW | 356,218 KRW | +52% |
| Giant Network Group 002558 | ¥28.57 | ¥15.50 | −46% |
| International Games System Co 3293 | 762.00 TWD | 568.16 TWD | −25% |
| CD Projekt S.A CDR | 234.40 PLN | 64.48 PLN | −72% |
| 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group 002555 | ¥19.21 | ¥22.29 | +16% |
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