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CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · PL · Market cap 23.2B PLN (≈ $6.2B) · ISIN PLOPTTC00011

What is CD PROJEKT SA really worth?

CP CD PROJEKT SA CDR · WAR
Price232.00 PLN
Fair Value64.48 PLN
Upside−72.2%
Quality68/100

A solid business, but trading 260% above our fair value of 64.48 PLN.

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Strengths

✓Highly profitable · 67.1% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 87/100

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +13.6 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (7/14)
!The models disagree: range 48.58 PLN to 177.71 PLN
!Weak on dividend: 9 out of 100
Evidence: High Range 48.58 PLN – 177.71 PLN

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price −8.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (177.71 PLN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (48.58 PLN to 177.71 PLN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

293.10 PLN 76.45 PLN Fair Value 64.48 PLN May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 76.45 PLN – 293.10 PLN · fair‑value band 48.58 PLN – 177.71 PLN · the 232.00 PLN price screens above the 64.48 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) currently trades at 232.00 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 64.48 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 259.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 244.98 PLN per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the 232.00 PLN price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 16.10 PLN, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, CD PROJEKT SA generated revenue of 878M PLN at a net margin of 67.1%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 88.1M PLN. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 48.58 PLN (bear case) to 177.71 PLN (bull case); at 232.00 PLN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −72%, CDR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 3.82 PLN per share, which is 5.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV 40.62 PLN 47.23 PLN 53.02 PLN 74
FCF DCF 91.66 PLN 143.68 PLN 309.32 PLN 73
Growth DCF 86.27 PLN 170.29 PLN 307.96 PLN 72
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 91.66 PLN 143.68 PLN 309.32 PLN 73
Owner Earnings 78.67 PLN 177.79 PLN 385.87 PLN 68
5Y Revenue Exit 40.54 PLN 60.04 PLN 100.06 PLN 69
5Y EBITDA Exit 61.82 PLN 103.06 PLN 183.74 PLN 70
5Y P/E Exit 91.50 PLN 203.77 PLN 356.86 PLN 65
10Y Revenue Exit 55.24 PLN 98.25 PLN 118.75 PLN 65
10Y EBITDA Exit 71.59 PLN 144.07 PLN 265.87 PLN 63
10Y P/E Exit 93.25 PLN 207.99 PLN 396.82 PLN 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 35.86 PLN 250.06 PLN 350.92 PLN 61
Lynch FV 129.19 PLN 184.55 PLN 239.92 PLN 59
PEG = 1.0 129.19 PLN 184.55 PLN 239.92 PLN 55
EPV 40.62 PLN 47.23 PLN 53.02 PLN 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 9.18 PLN 19.09 PLN 30.29 PLN 64
DDM Multi-Stage 9.18 PLN 16.10 PLN 20.04 PLN 64
Multiples
P/E Multiple 87.00 PLN 116.01 PLN 145.01 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 22.78 PLN 30.37 PLN 37.96 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 67.23 PLN 89.64 PLN 112.05 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 56.49 PLN 75.00 PLN 93.50 PLN 66
EV/EBITDA 48.66 PLN 64.56 PLN 80.46 PLN 67
EV/Revenue 19.19 PLN 27.00 PLN 34.81 PLN 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 16.46 PLN 22.06 PLN 32.93 PLN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 86.27 PLN 170.29 PLN 307.96 PLN 72
Rev-Margin DCF 43.55 PLN 66.06 PLN 112.98 PLN 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income 35.16 PLN 47.76 PLN 170.42 PLN 61
ROIC Compounder 50.17 PLN 70.41 PLN 89.18 PLN 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 171.49 PLN 244.98 PLN 318.48 PLN 65

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (244.98 PLN) versus Dividend Discount (16.10 PLN). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 45.3
P/S ratio 27.5 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 5.12 PLN price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.3
Dividend yield 0.4% payout 19.9%
Net margin 60.8% FY2025
Return on equity 16.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 14.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 51.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 878M PLN TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +6.1% 3y avg −3.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −5.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 538M PLN FY2025
Net cash 88.1M PLN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 68/100

Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 59
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 82
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 82
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 28
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 39
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CD Projekt S.A., together its subsidiaries, engages in the production, publishing, and digital distribution of video games and related products in Poland. The company's flagship products include The Witcher series of games and Cyberpunk 2077. It also exports its products to Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa.

Full company description

CD Projekt S.A., together its subsidiaries, engages in the production, publishing, and digital distribution of video games and related products in Poland. The company's flagship products include The Witcher series of games and Cyberpunk 2077. It also exports its products to Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CD PROJEKT SA reported revenue of 867M PLN in FY2025 versus 888M PLN in FY2021, a compound −0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 527M PLN in FY2025, compounding +26.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
867M PLN
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (19Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+20.7% (20.3 + 0.4)
Revenue −0.6%/yr
FY21 888M PLN
FY22 953M PLN
FY23 1.2B PLN
FY24 985M PLN
FY25 867M PLN
Net income +26.0%/yr
FY21 209M PLN
FY22 347M PLN
FY23 481M PLN
FY24 470M PLN
FY25 527M PLN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +10.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +7.9 %

of which total revenue +8.5 % · buybacks/dilution −0.6 %

EBIT margin −1.8 %
Tax rate +2.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +1.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

CDR screens 260% overvalued. Compare with Konami Group →

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CD PROJEKT SA · Fair Value
64.48 PLN −260%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CD PROJEKT SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/CDR

Peer Group

Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 150 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 68 · Above median
Fair Value upside −72% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 16% · Top 25%
Return on assets 9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 67% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 51% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.01× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Electronic Gaming & Multimedia median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 45.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 1.90× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 7.11× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 11.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 16
FUTURE31 · sector 6
PAST65 · sector 18
HEALTH100 · sector 100
DIVIDEND9 · sector 55

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Konami Group KNM £221.05 £71.97 −67%
NetEase, Inc 9999 HK$188.80 HK$263.39 +40%
Electronic Arts Inc EA $209.70 $76.57 −63%
Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc TTWO $233.00 $60.20 −74%
Roblox Corporation RBLX $41.29 $21.20 −49%
Zhejiang Century Huatong Group 002602 ¥13.90 ¥14.68 +6%
KRAFTON, Inc 259960 234,500 KRW 356,218 KRW +52%
Giant Network Group 002558 ¥28.57 ¥15.50 −46%
International Games System Co 3293 762.00 TWD 568.16 TWD −25%
37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group 002555 ¥19.21 ¥22.29 +16%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CD PROJEKT SA (CDR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 64.48 PLN versus a price of 232.00 PLN, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CDR?
Our model-based fair value for CD PROJEKT SA is 64.48 PLN (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 232.00 PLN.
What is the quality score of CDR?
CD PROJEKT SA has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CD PROJEKT SA (CDR)?
CD PROJEKT SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 878M PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of CDR?
The net profit margin of CD PROJEKT SA is about 67.1%, meaning it keeps roughly 67.1% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CD PROJEKT SA pay a dividend?
CD PROJEKT SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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