Paychex Inc (PAYX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $38.9B · ISIN US7043261079
What is Paychex Inc really worth?
Paychex Inc
PAYX · US
A strong business, but trading 27% above our fair value of $98.21.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +5.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($65.63 to $125.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $84.48 – $153.47 · fair‑value band $65.63 – $125.20 · the $125.08 price screens above the $98.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Paychex Inc (PAYX) currently trades at $125.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $98.21, implying the stock looks roughly 27.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $110.86 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $125.08 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $34.29, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Paychex Inc generated revenue of $4.0B at a net margin of 26.6%. Revenue grew 19.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 40.3%. Net debt stands at $3.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $65.63 (bear case) to $125.20 (bull case); at $125.08, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −21%, PAYX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 3 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.27 per share, which is 1.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($110.86) versus Asset-Based ($7.04). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
Notify me when PAYX reaches fair value
Put PAYX on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Paychex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides human capital management solutions (HCM) for payroll, employee benefits, human resources (HR), and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States, Europe, and India.
Full company description
Paychex, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides human capital management solutions (HCM) for payroll, employee benefits, human resources (HR), and insurance services for small to medium-sized businesses in the United States, Europe, and India. It offers payroll processing services; payroll tax administration services; employee payment services; and regulatory compliance services. The company provides retirement solutions, such as plan implementation, ongoing compliance with government regulations, employee and employer reporting, participant and employer online access, electronic funds transfer, and other administrative services; HCM solutions from recruiting and hiring to retirement; and talent management and talent acquisition services. In addition, it offers payroll solutions, including calculation, preparation, and delivery of employee payroll checks; production of internal accounting records and management reports; preparation of federal, state, and local payroll tax returns; and collection and remittance of clients' payroll obligations. Further, the company provides workforce management solutions; benefits administration solutions; digital marketplace for earned wages, financial wellness solutions, and voluntary lifestyle benefits; HR support to non-payroll clients through HR Partner Plus solution; and insurance services for property and casualty coverage, such as workers' compensation, business-owner policies, cyber security protection, and commercial auto, as well as health and benefits coverage, including health, dental, vision, and life. Additionally, it offers payroll, employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and both virtual and on-site availability of a professionally trained HR representative, and other solutions to businesses. It markets and sells its services primarily through its direct sales force. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Paychex Inc reported revenue of $6.5B in FY2026 versus $4.6B in FY2022, a compound +9.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.8B in FY2026, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +7.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PAYX screens 27% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Paychex Expands Award-Winning Lifestyle Benefits to 2M+ Employees on the Paycor® Platform
- HR Software Stocks Q2 Recap: Benchmarking Paychex (NASDAQ:PAYX)
- Here's Why You Should Hold PAYX Stock in Your Portfolio Now
Peer Group
Software - Application · 691 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAP | €191.32 | €169.59 | −11% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | −86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $78.82 | $43.66 | −45% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $252.05 | $249.28 | −1% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $138.43 | $43.73 | −68% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $340.39 | $112.57 | −67% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $329.11 | $42.27 | −87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $289.15 | $454.04 | +57% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $284.68 | $177.51 | −38% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $348.00 | $363.46 | +4% |
Compare Paychex Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Technology stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Paychex Inc (PAYX) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of PAYX?
What is the quality score of PAYX?
What is the revenue of Paychex Inc (PAYX)?
What is the net profit margin of PAYX?
Does Paychex Inc pay a dividend?
Watch Paychex Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Paychex Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.