CD Projekt S.A (OTGLY) Fair Value & Analysis
Communication Services · US · Market cap $6.0B
CD Projekt S.A
OTGLY · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $4.91 to $4.95 (+0.8%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +15.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 72% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($3.77 to $11.58). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.03 – $20.20 · fair‑value band $3.77 – $11.58 · the $17.45 price screens above the $4.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
CD Projekt S.A (OTGLY) currently trades at $17.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.95, implying the stock looks roughly 71.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, CD Projekt S.A generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 67.1%. Revenue grew 6.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $87.9M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.77 (bear case) to $11.58 (bull case); at $17.45, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -72%, OTGLY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($58.54) versus Dividend Discount ($3.61). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
CD Projekt S.A., together its subsidiaries, engages in the production, publishing, and digital distribution of video games and related products in Poland. The company's flagship products include The Witcher series of games and Cyberpunk 2077. It also exports its products to Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa.
Full company description
CD Projekt S.A., together its subsidiaries, engages in the production, publishing, and digital distribution of video games and related products in Poland. The company's flagship products include The Witcher series of games and Cyberpunk 2077. It also exports its products to Europe, North America, South America, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in Warsaw, Poland.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CD Projekt S.A reported revenue of $829M in FY2025 versus $888M in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was $504M in FY2025, compounding +24.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
OTGLY screens 72% overvalued. Compare with NetEase, Inc →
Peer Group
Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 155 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Electronic Gaming & Multimedia median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Electronic Gaming & Multimedia stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| NetEase, Inc 9999 | HK$192.50 | HK$262.75 | +36% |
| Electronic Arts Inc EA | $209.70 | $76.57 | -63% |
| Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc TTWO | $243.00 | $60.20 | -75% |
| Roblox Corporation RBLX | $36.22 | $21.20 | -41% |
| Zhejiang Century Huatong Group 002602 | ¥14.29 | ¥14.68 | +3% |
| KRAFTON, Inc 259960 | 234,500 KRW | 356,218 KRW | +52% |
| Giant Network Group 002558 | ¥28.57 | ¥15.50 | -46% |
| International Games System Co 3293 | 762.00 TWD | 568.16 TWD | -25% |
| 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group 002555 | ¥19.21 | ¥22.29 | +16% |
| Kingnet Network Co 002517 | ¥17.36 | ¥12.86 | -26% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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