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OrangePL (OPL) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · PL · Market cap 19.1B PLN (≈ $5.1B) · ISIN PLTLKPL00017

What is OrangePL really worth?

O OrangePL OPL · WAR
Price13.82 PLN
Fair Value9.96 PLN
Upside−27.9%
Quality53/100

A solid business, but trading 39% above our fair value of 9.96 PLN.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (10/15)

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +2.7 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.6% net margin
!Narrow moat 43/100
!Weak on future: 5 out of 100
!Weak on past: 25 out of 100

For context

·4.42% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range 8.17 PLN – 14.54 PLN

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 10.41 PLN to 9.96 PLN (−4.3%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price −11.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

16.38 PLN 3.97 PLN Fair Value 9.96 PLN May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 3.97 PLN – 16.38 PLN · fair‑value band 8.17 PLN – 14.54 PLN · the 13.82 PLN price screens above the 9.96 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

OrangePL (OPL) currently trades at 13.82 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 9.96 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 38.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 12.77 PLN per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the 13.82 PLN price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 4.83 PLN, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, OrangePL generated revenue of 13.2B PLN at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.3%. Net debt stands at 3.7B PLN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 8.17 PLN (bear case) to 14.54 PLN (bull case); at 13.82 PLN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at −28%, OPL screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly 0.0271 PLN per share, which is 0.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 3.95 PLN 5.81 PLN 9.26 PLN 79
Growth DCF 4.17 PLN 5.98 PLN 9.07 PLN 78
Residual Income 8.13 PLN 8.42 PLN 8.44 PLN 76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 3.95 PLN 5.81 PLN 9.26 PLN 79
Owner Earnings 3.01 PLN 4.50 PLN 7.27 PLN 75
5Y Revenue Exit 6.63 PLN 10.84 PLN 16.98 PLN 71
5Y EBITDA Exit 15.98 PLN 27.04 PLN 41.67 PLN 74
5Y P/E Exit 6.08 PLN 9.89 PLN 14.44 PLN 70
10Y Revenue Exit 5.28 PLN 8.33 PLN 11.67 PLN 67
10Y EBITDA Exit 11.22 PLN 18.34 PLN 26.17 PLN 68
10Y P/E Exit 5.21 PLN 7.74 PLN 10.18 PLN 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 3.95 PLN 4.83 PLN 5.43 PLN 67
EPV 8.38 PLN 9.91 PLN 11.24 PLN 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 4.87 PLN 5.33 PLN 6.03 PLN 69
DDM Multi-Stage 4.87 PLN 6.11 PLN 7.85 PLN 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 9.58 PLN 12.77 PLN 15.97 PLN 63
P/S Multiple 7.40 PLN 9.87 PLN 12.34 PLN 58
P/B Multiple 7.40 PLN 9.87 PLN 12.34 PLN 55
EV/EBIT 12.29 PLN 16.65 PLN 21.01 PLN 66
EV/EBITDA 27.62 PLN 37.09 PLN 46.56 PLN 67
EV/Revenue 9.13 PLN 13.38 PLN 17.63 PLN 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 5.15 PLN 6.90 PLN 10.31 PLN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 4.17 PLN 5.98 PLN 9.07 PLN 78
Rev-Margin DCF 6.63 PLN 10.95 PLN 16.17 PLN 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income 8.13 PLN 8.42 PLN 8.44 PLN 76
ROIC Compounder 8.38 PLN 9.91 PLN 11.56 PLN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 6.75 PLN 9.65 PLN 12.54 PLN 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (12.77 PLN) versus Earnings-Based (4.83 PLN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 21.3
P/S ratio 1.23 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 0.6500 PLN price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.3
Dividend yield 4.4% payout 93.8%
Net margin 5.8% FY2025
Return on equity 6.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 12.7% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 13.2B PLN TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.0% 3y avg +1.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +54.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 640M PLN FY2025
Net debt 3.7B PLN FY2025 · ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 39
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 46
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 85
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 61
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Orange Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services for individuals, small and large businesses, and corporations in Poland.

Full company description

Orange Polska S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services for individuals, small and large businesses, and corporations in Poland. The company offers mobile and fixed telecommunications services, including calls, messaging, content, and access to the Internet and TV; and information technology and integration services, leased lines, and other value-added telecommunication services. It also engages in the sale of telecommunications equipment; provision of data transmission services; and construction of telecommunications infrastructure. In addition, the company is involved in the local operation of fibre infrastructure; provision of training, insurance agency, and charity foundation services; management of employee pension funds; and point of sale rental business. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is based in Warsaw, Poland. Orange Polska S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Orange S.A.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

OrangePL reported revenue of 13.1B PLN in FY2025 versus 11.9B PLN in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was 762M PLN in FY2025, compounding −17.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
13.1B PLN
Latest YoY
+3.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+57.4% (53.0 + 4.4)
Revenue +2.4%/yr
FY21 11.9B PLN
FY22 12.5B PLN
FY23 13.0B PLN
FY24 12.7B PLN
FY25 13.1B PLN
Net income −17.8%/yr
FY21 1.7B PLN
FY22 724M PLN
FY23 818M PLN
FY24 913M PLN
FY25 762M PLN
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +8.2 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.8 %

of which total revenue +0.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %

EBIT margin +5.2 %
Tax rate −1.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +3.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

OPL screens 39% overvalued. Compare with China Mobile Limited →

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OrangePL · Fair Value
9.96 PLN −39%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "OrangePL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OPL

Peer Group

Telecom Services · 248 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 53 · Above median
Fair Value upside −28% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 7% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.4% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.12× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 21.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.38× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.39× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 8.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.72× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 28
FUTURE5 · sector 16
PAST25 · sector 28
HEALTH94 · sector 89
DIVIDEND88 · sector 76

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Mobile Limited 600941 ¥96.11 ¥109.88 +14%
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS $177.75 $172.67 −3%
Verizon Communications Inc VZ $49.43 $64.43 +30%
AT&T Inc T $26.01 $43.97 +69%
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL ₹1,935 ₹941.48 −51%
Comcast Corporation CMCSA $26.41 $95.42 +261%
China Telecom Corporation 601728 ¥6.43 ¥8.36 +30%
América Móvil, S.A. AMX $23.50 $39.45 +68%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z77 4.29 SGD 3.03 SGD −29%
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 627.50 CHF 463.92 −26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is OrangePL (OPL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 9.96 PLN versus a price of 13.82 PLN, about −28% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OPL?
Our model-based fair value for OrangePL is 9.96 PLN (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 13.82 PLN.
What is the quality score of OPL?
OrangePL has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of OrangePL (OPL)?
OrangePL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 13.2B PLN (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of OPL?
The net profit margin of OrangePL is about 6.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does OrangePL pay a dividend?
OrangePL currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.42% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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