Natera, Inc (NTRA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $38.6B
Natera, Inc
NTRA · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +14.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 95% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.13 – $322.10 · fair‑value band $12.95 – $18.89 · the $310.78 price screens above the $15.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Natera, Inc (NTRA) currently trades at $310.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $15.92, implying the stock looks roughly 94.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Natera, Inc generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of -9.1%. Revenue grew 38.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -15.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $862M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $12.95 (bear case) to $18.89 (bull case); at $310.78, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 136% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -95%, NTRA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($25.72) versus Dividend Discount ($3.37). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, engages in the development and commercialization of molecular testing services worldwide.
Full company description
Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, engages in the development and commercialization of molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Signatera, a personalized ctDNA blood test for MRD assessment, early recurrence monitoring, and evaluation of treatment response in patients previously diagnosed with cancer; Latitude, a blood-based MRD test for colorectal cancer; Altera, a tissue based comprehensive genomic profiling test; and Empower, a hereditary cancer screening test. The company also provides Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test; Horizon, a carrier screening test; Fetal Focus, a single-gene NIPT, or sgNIPT, that screens for 21 single-gene inherited conditions; and Vistara, a single-gene NIPT, which screens for 25 single-gene conditions. In addition, it offers Anora, which tests and analyzes miscarriage tissue from women who have experienced one or more pregnancy losses; Empower, a hereditary cancer screening test; Prospera, a test to assess active rejection in patients who have undergone solid organ transplantation; Renasight, a kidney gene panel test; and Constellation software, a cloud-based distribution model. Further, the company provides NateraCore, a platform to support the patient and provider experience; phlebotomy services; and EMR integration services. The company serves independent laboratories, national and regional reference laboratories, medical centers and physician practices for its screening tests, research laboratories, and pharmaceutical companies through its direct sales force and laboratory distribution partners, as well as Constellation licensees under its cloud-based distribution model. It has a partnership agreement with BGI Genomics Co., Ltd. to develop, manufacture, and commercialize NGS-based genetic testing assays for clinical and commercial use. The company has a collaboration with Diakonos Oncology Corp. to assess molecular response in patients with refractory melanoma. The company was formerly known as Gene Security Network, LLC and changed its name to Natera, Inc. in Januar
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Natera, Inc reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2025 versus $625M in FY2021, a compound +38.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$208M in FY2025.
NTRA screens 95% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 3 Reasons We’re Fans of Natera (NTRA)
- Signatera™ MRD Outperformed AMERK Testing in Predicting Merkel Cell Carcinoma Recurrence in JAMA Dermatology Study
Peer Group
Diagnostics & Research · 135 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO | $603.01 | $308.19 | -49% |
| Danaher Corporation DHR | $205.79 | $103.88 | -50% |
| WuXi AppTec Co 2359 | HK$198.90 | HK$157.39 | -21% |
| Lonza Group LONN | CHF 566.20 | CHF 259.80 | -54% |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX | $570.58 | $255.77 | -55% |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc A | $148.24 | $61.53 | -58% |
| Waters Corporation WAT | $416.15 | $121.96 | -71% |
| IQVIA Holdings IQV | $243.84 | $132.17 | -46% |
| Illumina, Inc ILMN | $192.91 | $95.51 | -50% |
| Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD | $1,437 | $615.78 | -57% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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