Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $17.2B · ISIN US64125C1099
What is Neurocrine Biosciences Inc really worth?
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc
NBIX · US
A solid business, but trading 70% above our fair value of $93.35.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −4.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($154.45). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($70.75 to $154.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $72.45 – $185.50 · fair‑value band $70.75 – $154.45 · the $158.35 price screens above the $93.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX) currently trades at $158.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $93.35, implying the stock looks roughly 69.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $221.14 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $158.35 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $21.68, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Neurocrine Biosciences Inc generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 21.6%. Revenue grew 42.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 22.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $298M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $70.75 (bear case) to $154.45 (bull case); at $158.35, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −41%, NBIX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.39 per share, which is 4.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($221.14) versus Asset-Based ($21.68). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercialize pharmaceuticals for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and immunological disorders in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Neurocrine Biosciences, Inc. discovers, develops, and commercialize pharmaceuticals for neurological, psychiatric, endocrine, and immunological disorders in the United States and internationally. The company's products include INGREZZA for tardive dyskinesia and chorea associated with Huntington's disease; Orilissa tablets for endometriosis; Oriahnn capsules to treat uterine fibroids; and CRENESSITY to treat congenital adrenal hyperplasia, as well as offers products under the name of ALKINDI and Efmody. Its product candidates in clinical development includes NBI-1076986 to treat movement disorders; Osavampator for inadequate response to treatment in major depressive disorder; NBI-1117568 for the treatment of schizophrenia and bipolar mania; NBI-1117567 for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease; NBI 921355 for the treatment of epilepsy; NBIP-01435 for the treatment of congenital adrenal hyperplasia; NBIP-2118 for the treatment of obesity and related metabolic diseases; and NBI-1070770 to treat major depressive disorder; and NBI-1117570, NBI-1117567, NBI-1117569, NBI-1140675, and NBI-1065890 for neuropsychiatric and neurological conditions. The company also has license and collaboration agreements with Nxera Pharma UK Limited; Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited; Xenon Pharmaceuticals Inc.; Voyager Therapeutics, Inc.; Sanofi S.A.; Tanabe Pharma Corporation; and AbbVie Inc. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc reported revenue of $2.9B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +26.0%/yr. Reported net income was $479M in FY2025, compounding +52.0%/yr from FY2021.
NBIX screens 70% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Wins FDA Trial Nod, Is It Still Below Fair Value?
- Did Nxera’s Alzheimer’s Milestone and IND Progress Just Shift Neurocrine Biosciences' (NBIX) Investment Narrative?
- Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Stock Looks Fairly Priced As 64% Gain Holds
- Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) Cleared For Phase 2 Alzheimer’s Cognition Study
Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 608 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merck KGaA MRK | €140.25 | €106.48 | −24% |
| Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK | $18.03 | $11.11 | −38% |
| Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 | ¥53.76 | ¥25.94 | −52% |
| Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA | ₹1,944 | ₹989.50 | −49% |
| Galderma Group GALD | CHF 178.55 | CHF 55.07 | −69% |
| Haleon plc HLN | $10.11 | $7.64 | −24% |
| Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA | $36.05 | $15.33 | −57% |
| Sandoz Group SDZ | CHF 70.66 | CHF 39.21 | −45% |
| Zoetis Inc ZTS | $77.10 | $104.88 | +36% |
| Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 | HK$35.12 | HK$16.18 | −54% |
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