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Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $15.3B · ISIN US58506Q1094

What is Medpace Holdings Inc really worth?

MH Medpace Holdings Inc logo Medpace Holdings Inc MEDP · US
Price$593.39
Fair Value$284.18
Upside−52.1%
Quality86/100

A strong business, but trading 109% above our fair value of $284.18.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +22.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.2% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 80/100

Risks

!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!The models disagree: range $215.29 to $609.25
!Weak on dividend: 2 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $215.29 – $609.25

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price +3.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 86/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The model range is unusually wide ($215.29 to $609.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$620.75 $130.20 Fair Value $284.18 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $130.20 – $620.75 · fair‑value band $215.29 – $609.25 · the $593.39 price screens above the $284.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) currently trades at $593.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $284.18, implying the stock looks roughly 108.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $573.65 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $593.39 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $190.96, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Medpace Holdings Inc generated revenue of $2.7B at a net margin of 17.2%. Revenue grew 26.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 77.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $247M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $215.29 (bear case) to $609.25 (bull case); at $593.39, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 102% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −52%, MEDP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $10.78 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $406.50 $646.91 $1,381 75
EPV $162.57 $187.23 $208.80 74
Growth DCF $385.13 $717.65 $1,375 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $406.50 $646.91 $1,381 75
Owner Earnings $260.27 $573.65 $1,232 70
5Y Revenue Exit $253.71 $423.11 $757.50 70
5Y EBITDA Exit $271.07 $459.83 $810.16 72
5Y P/E Exit $310.06 $616.14 $1,014 68
10Y Revenue Exit $290.23 $543.68 $776.41 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $309.85 $578.09 $1,063 65
10Y P/E Exit $337.65 $655.33 $1,208 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $107.41 $749.07 $1,051 63
Lynch FV $241.38 $344.82 $448.27 61
PEG = 1.0 $241.38 $344.82 $448.27 57
EPV $162.57 $187.23 $208.80 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.66 $7.61 $12.07 66
DDM Multi-Stage $3.66 $6.41 $7.98 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $260.63 $347.51 $434.38 63
P/S Multiple $201.40 $268.53 $335.66 58
P/B Multiple $54.25 $72.33 $90.42 55
EV/EBIT $253.43 $333.03 $412.63 66
EV/EBITDA $221.27 $290.16 $359.05 67
EV/Revenue $185.06 $258.11 $331.16 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.04 $10.77 $16.07 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $385.13 $717.65 $1,375 74
Rev-Margin DCF $253.71 $467.92 $794.84 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $130.66 $301.46 $15,130 64
ROIC Compounder $164.15 $190.96 $215.84 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $328.06 $468.65 $609.25 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($573.65) versus Dividend Discount ($6.41). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 37.3
P/S ratio 6.65 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $15.91 price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.3
Dividend yield 0.1% payout 3.2%
Net margin 17.8% FY2025
Return on equity 77.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 20.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 20.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $2.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +26.5% 3y avg +20.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +16.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $682M FY2025
Net cash $247M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 86/100

Of which business quality 84 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 89
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 79
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 40
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 72
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 74
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia. The company offers a suite of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV in various therapeutic areas.

Full company description

Medpace Holdings, Inc. provides clinical research-based drug and medical device development services in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, Africa, and Australia. The company offers a suite of services supporting the clinical development process from Phase I to Phase IV in various therapeutic areas. It provides clinical development services to the pharmaceutical, biotechnology, and medical device industries; and development plan design, coordinated central laboratory, project management, regulatory affairs, clinical monitoring, data management and analysis, pharmacovigilance new drug application submissions, and post-marketing clinical support services. In addition, the company offers bio-analytical laboratory services, clinical human pharmacology, imaging services, and electrocardiography reading support for clinical trials. Medpace Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Medpace Holdings Inc reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +22.0%/yr. Reported net income was $451M in FY2025, compounding +25.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$2.5B
Latest YoY
+20.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+31.8% (31.7 + 0.1)
Revenue +22.0%/yr
FY21 $1.1B
FY22 $1.5B
FY23 $1.9B
FY24 $2.1B
FY25 $2.5B
Net income +25.5%/yr
FY21 $182M
FY22 $245M
FY23 $283M
FY24 $404M
FY25 $451M

MEDP screens 109% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →

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Medpace Holdings Inc · Fair Value
$284.18 −109%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Medpace Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MEDP

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Diagnostics & Research · 130 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 86 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −52% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 77% · Top 25%
Return on assets 17% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 20% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.17× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 37.3× · Pricier than median
P/B 33.35× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 5.72× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 22.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 25.2× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 3.30× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 30
PAST100 · sector 12
HEALTH91 · sector 96
DIVIDEND2 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO $630.70 $308.19 −51%
Danaher Corporation DHR $215.68 $103.88 −52%
WuXi AppTec Co 2359 HK$189.30 HK$150.16 −21%
Lonza Group LONN CHF 576.60 CHF 259.80 −55%
IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX $556.69 $255.77 −54%
Agilent Technologies, Inc A $149.93 $61.53 −59%
Waters Corporation WAT $416.15 $121.96 −71%
IQVIA Holdings IQV $236.66 $132.17 −44%
Illumina, Inc ILMN $215.59 $95.51 −56%
Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD $1,419 $615.78 −57%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $284.18 versus a price of $593.39, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MEDP?
Our model-based fair value for Medpace Holdings Inc is $284.18 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $593.39.
What is the quality score of MEDP?
Medpace Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 86/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Medpace Holdings Inc (MEDP)?
Medpace Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MEDP?
The net profit margin of Medpace Holdings Inc is about 17.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Medpace Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Medpace Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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