HubSpot Inc (HUBS) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $10.7B · ISIN US4435731009

What is HubSpot Inc really worth?

HubSpot Inc HUBS · US

Price$255.12

Fair Value$26.27

Upside−89.7% ⚠

Quality60/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 871% above our fair value of $26.27.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +28.8 %/yr)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 3.0% net margin

!Trails peers (5/14)

!Moderate moat 45/100

!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

!Weak on past: 20 out of 100

!Weak on dividend: 2 out of 100

Evidence: Low Range $26.27 – $26.27

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price +2.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($26.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $170.28 – $852.08 · the $255.12 price screens above the $26.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

HubSpot Inc (HUBS) currently trades at $255.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.27, implying the stock looks roughly 870.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $142.83 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $255.12 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.62, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, HubSpot Inc generated revenue of $3.3B at a net margin of 3.0%. Revenue grew 23.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $397M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 58% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −90%, HUBS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.29 per share, which is 4.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($3.62 to $442.62). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

Residual Income $28.54 $27.15 $21.68 76

FCF DCF $240.95 $374.38 $799.23 75

Growth DCF $227.13 $442.62 $795.73 75

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $240.95 $374.38 $799.23 75

Owner Earnings $47.89 $98.37 $204.34 71

5Y Revenue Exit $73.64 $86.67 $111.04 74

5Y EBITDA Exit $101.42 $142.83 $222.91 74

5Y P/E Exit $86.23 $131.94 $185.58 71

10Y Revenue Exit $123.15 $179.93 $190.80 68

10Y EBITDA Exit $143.51 $239.74 $385.14 67

10Y P/E Exit $132.43 $207.03 $309.61 63

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $6.10 $42.53 $59.69 63

Lynch FV $20.46 $29.23 $38.00 61

PEG = 1.0 $20.46 $29.23 $38.00 57

EPV $9.38 $9.56 $9.71 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $2.07 $4.30 $6.82 66

DDM Multi-Stage $2.07 $3.62 $4.51 66

Multiples

P/E Multiple $18.83 $25.11 $31.39 63

P/S Multiple $11.43 $15.25 $19.06 58

P/B Multiple $11.43 $15.25 $19.06 55

EV/EBIT $12.33 $13.66 $15.00 66

EV/EBITDA $47.27 $60.25 $73.24 67

EV/Revenue $10.35 $11.22 $12.08 54

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $20.18 $27.04 $40.36 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $227.13 $442.62 $795.73 75

Rev-Margin DCF $77.91 $98.56 $143.59 73

Economic Profit

Residual Income $28.54 $27.15 $21.68 76

ROIC Compounder $9.38 $9.56 $9.71 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $30.03 $42.90 $55.77 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($142.83) versus Dividend Discount ($3.62). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 133.6

P/S ratio 1.96 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) $1.91 price ÷ EPS = P/E 133.6

Dividend yield 0.1% payout 12.5%

Net margin 1.5% FY2025

Return on equity 5.0% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) −2.9% avg 5y

Operating margin 3.3% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) $3.3B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +23.4% 3y avg +21.8%

EPS growth (YoY) +968%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow $708M FY2025

Net cash $397M FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 44

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 67

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 93

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 71

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 42

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 22

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 31

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 11

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 51

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

HubSpot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform for businesses in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.

Full company description

HubSpot, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides a cloud-based customer relationship management (CRM) platform for businesses in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company's CRM platform includes Marketing Hub, a toolset for marketing automation and email, social media, SEO, AEO, and reporting and analytics; Sales Hub offers email templates and tracking, conversations and live chat, meeting and call scheduling, lead and website visit alerts, lead scoring, sales automation, pipeline management, quoting, forecasting, and reporting; Service Hub, a service software designed to help businesses manage, respond, and connect with customers; and Content Hub that helps business with website pages, business blogging, video and podcast hosting, smart content, landing pages and forms, SEO recommendations, forms and lead flow, web analytics reporting, calls-to-action, and file manager. It offers Operations Hub, which provides programmable automation, data sync, data curation, and data quality tools; and Commerce Hub, a B2B commerce suite that provides payment links, invoices, quotes, subscription management, and automation and revenue reporting; and breeze, an AI that powers the customer platform that provides AI-powered insights, automation, content generation, and data enrichment, as well as Breeze Assistant, a go-to-market assistant to boost productivity and make work easier; and Breeze Agents, which helps teams automate work end-to-end from strategy to execution. In addition, the company provides professional services to educate and train customers on how to utilize its CRM platform; and customer success; phone and/or email and chat-based support services; and helps customers by providing Customer Success Manager and Partner Development Manager digital channels through educational content academey. It serves mid-market business-to-business companies. The company was incorporated in 2005 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

HubSpot Inc reported revenue of $3.1B in FY2025 versus $1.3B in FY2021, a compound +24.6%/yr. Reported net income was $45.9M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

$3.1B

Latest YoY

+19.2%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+21.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+28.8%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+39.9%

Value creation/yr ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: no profitable base year

not computed

Revenue +24.6%/yr

FY21 $1.3B

FY22 $1.7B

FY23 $2.2B

FY24 $2.6B

FY25 $3.1B

Net income

FY21 −$77.8M

FY22 −$107M

FY23 −$165M

FY24 $4.6M

FY25 $45.9M

HUBS screens 871% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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HubSpot Inc · Fair Value
$26.27 −871%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HubSpot Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HUBS

Peer Group

Software - Application · 691 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 60 · Above median

Fair Value upside −90% · Bottom 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median

Return on assets 1% · Below median

Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median

Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median

Revenue growth 23% · Top 25%

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%

Debt / equity 0.22× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 133.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/B 5.19× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/S (TTM) 3.25× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 15.2× · Pricier than median

PEG 0.35× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 0

FUTURE100 · sector 37

PAST20 · sector 12

HEALTH89 · sector 98

DIVIDEND2 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP	€191.32	€169.59	−11%
Shopify Inc SHOP	C$209.78	C$28.76	−86%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER	$78.82	$43.66	−45%
Salesforce, Inc CRM	$252.05	$249.28	−1%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW	$138.43	$43.73	−68%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS	$340.39	$112.57	−67%
Snowflake Inc SNOW	$329.11	$42.27	−87%
Adobe Inc ADBE	$289.15	$454.04	+57%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP	$284.68	$177.51	−38%
Intuit Inc INTU	$348.00	$363.46	+4%

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Frequently asked questions

Is HubSpot Inc (HUBS) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.27 versus a price of $255.12, about −90% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of HUBS?

Our model-based fair value for HubSpot Inc is $26.27 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $255.12.

What is the quality score of HUBS?

HubSpot Inc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the revenue of HubSpot Inc (HUBS)?

HubSpot Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of HUBS?

The net profit margin of HubSpot Inc is about 3.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does HubSpot Inc pay a dividend?

HubSpot Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.09% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).

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