Guidewire Software Inc (GWRE) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $11.3B · ISIN US40171V1008
What is Guidewire Software Inc really worth?
Guidewire Software Inc
GWRE · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 1,368% above our fair value of $13.82.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +26.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $52.65 – $261.88 · fair‑value band $13.29 – $17.32 · the $202.86 price screens above the $13.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Guidewire Software Inc (GWRE) currently trades at $202.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.82, implying the stock looks roughly 1,368.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $36.96 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $202.86 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $5.23, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guidewire Software Inc generated revenue of $1.4B at a net margin of 11.3%. Revenue grew 26.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at $16.6M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.29 (bear case) to $17.32 (bull case); at $202.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −93%, GWRE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.86 per share, which is 13.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($36.96) versus Economic Profit ($5.23). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Guidewire Software, Inc. provides a platform for property and casualty (P&C) insurers worldwide. It offers Guidewire InsuranceSuite, such as PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter, and BillingCenter applications.
Full company description
Guidewire Software, Inc. provides a platform for property and casualty (P&C) insurers worldwide. It offers Guidewire InsuranceSuite, such as PolicyCenter, ClaimCenter, and BillingCenter applications. The company also provides Guidewire InsuranceNow, a cloud-based application that offers policy administration, claims management, and billing functionality, plus pre-integrated document production, analytics, and other capabilities. In addition, it offers Guidewire Rating Management to manage the pricing of insurance products; Guidewire Reinsurance Management to use rules-based logic to execute reinsurance strategy through underwriting and claims processes; Guidewire Client Data Management that helps P&C insurers to capitalize on customer information; Guidewire Advanced Product Designer, a cloud-native application for insurance product design and management; Guidewire Product Content Management provides software tools and standards-based, line-of-business templates. Further, the company provides Guidewire Digital Engagement Applications, which enable insurers to provide digital experiences; Guidewire Predict, a P&C-specific machine-learning platform; Guidewire HazardHub that allows insurers to understand, assess, price, and manage property risk; Guidewire Canvas, Guidewire Compare, Guidewire industry Intel, Guidewire Data Studio, and Guidewire Explore, an cloud-native applications; Guidewire Cyence, a cyber-risk economic modeling product; Guidewire DataHub, an operational data store; and Guidewire InfoCenter, a business intelligence warehouse for P&C insurers . The company was incorporated in 2001 and is headquartered in San Mateo, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guidewire Software Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $743M in FY2021, a compound +12.8%/yr. Reported net income was $69.8M in FY2025.
GWRE screens 1,368% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 691 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAP | €191.32 | €169.59 | −11% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | −86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $78.82 | $43.66 | −45% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $252.05 | $249.28 | −1% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $138.43 | $43.73 | −68% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $340.39 | $112.57 | −67% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $329.11 | $42.27 | −87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $289.15 | $454.04 | +57% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $284.68 | $177.51 | −38% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $348.00 | $363.46 | +4% |
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