EN DE

Gerdau S.A (GGBN) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 164B MXN

GS Gerdau S.A GGBN · MX
Price83.50 MXN
Fair Value39.22 MXN
Upside-53.0%
Quality51/100
Watch Gerdau S.A for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free
Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 2.4% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
0.81% dividend yield
Narrow moat 37/100
Evidence: High Range 24.24 MXN – 49.03 MXN Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 42.64 MXN to 39.22 MXN (−8.0%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +3.1% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 53% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (49.03 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range (24.24 MXN to 49.03 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Share this valuation: 𝕏 WhatsApp

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

112.70 MXN 50.33 MXN Fair Value 39.22 MXN Apr 2021 Jul 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 50.33 MXN – 112.70 MXN · fair‑value band 24.24 MXN – 49.03 MXN · the 83.50 MXN price screens above the 39.22 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

Which stocks are undervalued right now? Check free Discover now →

Analysis

Gerdau S.A (GGBN) currently trades at 83.50 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 39.22 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 53.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Gerdau S.A generated revenue of 69.2B MXN at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue declined 3.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.1%. Net debt stands at 8.3B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 24.24 MXN (bear case) to 49.03 MXN (bull case); at 83.50 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -53%, GGBN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (4.06 MXN to 43.34 MXN). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 2.83 MXN 5.83 MXN 10.07 MXN 80
Residual Income 19.59 MXN 19.14 MXN 15.98 MXN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 14.43 MXN 27.77 MXN 42.65 MXN 74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 2.70 MXN 6.04 MXN 11.05 MXN 38
5Y Revenue Exit 14.43 MXN 28.05 MXN 45.58 MXN 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 18.78 MXN 36.08 MXN 56.24 MXN 41
5Y P/E Exit 3.69 MXN 8.26 MXN 12.99 MXN 38
10Y Revenue Exit 9.30 MXN 20.72 MXN 36.19 MXN 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 12.83 MXN 26.25 MXN 44.22 MXN 37
10Y P/E Exit 3.27 MXN 7.09 MXN 11.65 MXN 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 4.78 MXN 13.77 MXN 18.17 MXN 54
Lynch FV 2.84 MXN 4.06 MXN 5.28 MXN 50
PEG = 1.0 2.84 MXN 4.06 MXN 5.28 MXN 46
EPV 9.82 MXN 12.07 MXN 14.04 MXN 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 5.98 MXN 12.43 MXN 19.71 MXN 70
DDM Multi-Stage 5.98 MXN 9.57 MXN 13.04 MXN 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 8.95 MXN 11.94 MXN 14.92 MXN 63
P/S Multiple 8.95 MXN 11.94 MXN 14.92 MXN 58
P/B Multiple 8.95 MXN 11.94 MXN 14.92 MXN 55
EV/EBIT 26.11 MXN 36.05 MXN 45.99 MXN 53
EV/EBITDA 31.58 MXN 43.34 MXN 55.10 MXN 54
EV/Revenue 22.14 MXN 33.21 MXN 44.28 MXN 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 13.56 MXN 18.18 MXN 27.13 MXN 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 2.83 MXN 5.83 MXN 10.07 MXN 80
Rev-Margin DCF 14.43 MXN 27.77 MXN 42.65 MXN 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 19.59 MXN 19.14 MXN 15.98 MXN 76
ROIC Compounder 9.82 MXN 12.07 MXN 14.04 MXN 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 7.38 MXN 10.54 MXN 13.70 MXN 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (20.72 MXN) versus Earnings-Based (4.06 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Notify me when GGBN reaches fair value

Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 69.2B MXN
Revenue growth (YoY) -3.8%
Net margin 2.4%
Return on equity 3.1%
Free cash flow 1.1B MXN FY2025
P/E ratio 28.9 as of Jun 10, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 10.5%
EPS (TTM) 2.83 MXN
Dividend yield 0.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +37.9%
Net debt 8.3B MXN FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74

Profitability 30
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 33
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 71
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 70
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles.

Full company description

Gerdau S.A., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a steel producer company. It operates through Brazil Business, North America Business, and South America Business segments. The company offers rebars, bars, wires, thick plates, hot rolled coils, billets, blooms, plates, wire rods, and structural profiles. It also provides special steel products for agricultural, automotive, construction, distribution, energy, industrial, and mining markets. In addition, it operates mines that produce iron ore located in Brazil. The company was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Gerdau S.A reported revenue of 69.9B MXN in FY2025 versus 78.3B MXN in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was 1.4B MXN in FY2025, compounding −45.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
69.9B MXN
Latest YoY
+4.2%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.4%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.8%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Revenue −2.8%/yr
FY21 78.3B MXN
FY22 82.4B MXN
FY23 68.9B MXN
FY24 67.0B MXN
FY25 69.9B MXN
Net income −45.4%/yr
FY21 15.6B MXN
FY22 11.4B MXN
FY23 7.5B MXN
FY24 4.6B MXN
FY25 1.4B MXN

GGBN screens 53% overvalued. Compare with JSW Steel Limited →

Run the numbers yourself: free valuation calculators
DCF CalculatorGraham NumberPeter Lynch FormulaDDM CalculatorFama-French ModelIntrinsic Value
Share or link this analysis
𝕏 Post WhatsApp LinkedIn Reddit
For bloggers & editors: embed code + live data

For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.

Gerdau S.A · Fair Value
39.22 MXN −53%Fair Value
Calculator →

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Gerdau S.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/GGBN

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,269 ₹1,140 -10%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹186.20 ₹145.39 -22%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.74 ¥8.07 +41%
China Steel Corporation 2002A 37.25 TWD 8.74 TWD -77%
POSCO Holdings 005490 325,000 KRW 155,270 KRW -52%
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, SID 13,670 ARS 15,838 ARS +16%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,112 ₹516.27 -54%
Lloyds Metals and Energy Limited LLOYDSME ₹1,894 ₹771.10 -59%
Ternium S.A TXR 17,780 ARS 27,472 ARS +55%
NMDC Limited NMDC ₹85.00 ₹112.98 +33%

Compare Gerdau S.A with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

Free, no sign-up

Explore undervalued stocks

More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →

All undervalued stocks TechnologyFinancial ServicesHealthcareConsumer CyclicalConsumer DefensiveCommunication ServicesIndustrialsEnergyBasic MaterialsReal EstateUtilities Deeply Undervalued StocksUndervalued High-Quality StocksUndervalued Blue-Chip StocksUndervalued Small-Cap StocksUndervalued Dividend Stocks

Frequently asked questions

Is Gerdau S.A (GGBN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 39.22 MXN versus a price of 83.50 MXN, about −53% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of GGBN?
Our model-based fair value for Gerdau S.A is 39.22 MXN (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 83.50 MXN.
What is the quality score of GGBN?
Gerdau S.A has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Gerdau S.A (GGBN)?
Gerdau S.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 69.2B MXN (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of GGBN?
The net profit margin of Gerdau S.A is about 2.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Gerdau S.A pay a dividend?
Gerdau S.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.83% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

14 days Pro free · no card

Track Gerdau S.A and try Pro for 14 days

One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.

Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.