Elastic NV (ESTC) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $6.3B · ISIN NL0013056914
What is Elastic NV really worth?
Elastic NV
ESTC · US
A solid business, but trading 60% above our fair value of $60.14.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +35.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($45.11 to $153.18). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.30 – $186.78 · fair‑value band $45.11 – $153.18 · the $96.13 price screens above the $60.14 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Elastic NV (ESTC) currently trades at $96.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $60.14, implying the stock looks roughly 59.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $130.70 per share, and 6 of the 20 models we run sit above the $96.13 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.23, and 14 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Elastic NV generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of 21.1%. Revenue grew 16.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $179M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $45.11 (bear case) to $153.18 (bull case); at $96.13, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 129% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −37%, ESTC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 4 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.16 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($130.70) versus Asset-Based ($8.23). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Elastic N.V., a search artificial intelligence (AI) company, provides software platforms to run in hybrid, public or private clouds, and multi-cloud environments in the United States and internationally. It primarily offers Elastic's Search AI Platform, a set of software products that ingest and store data from various sources and formats, as well as performs search, analysis, and visualization on that data. The company also provides Elastic search product a distributed, real-time vector database and analytics engine and data store for all types of data, including textual, numerical, geospatial, structured, and unstructured; Kibana, a user interface, management, and configuration interface for the platforms; Elasticsearch search platform, a platform with retrieval algorithms and the ability to integrate with large language models; and elastic security, a security solution that provides unified protection to prevent, detect, and respond to threats. In addition, it offers Elastic Observability, a solution that enables unified analysis, including Logs analytics to search and analyze petabytes of structured and unstructured logs; infrastructure monitoring to gain visibility across cloud, on-premises, Kubernetes, serverless, and hosts; Application Performance Monitoring to stream native production-grade; digital experience monitoring; and large language models. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Elastic NV reported revenue of $1.7B in FY2026 versus $862M in FY2022, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was $368M in FY2026.
ESTC screens 60% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Elastic (ESTC) Is Up 16.3% After AI-Fueled Q1 Beat And Higher 2027 Revenue Guidance – Has The Bull Case Changed?
- Why Is Elastic (ESTC) Stock Rocketing Higher Today
- Elastic Announces Internet Availability of Proxy Materials for its 2026 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders
- ESTC Q2 CY2026 Deep Dive: AI Adoption, Enterprise Expansion, and New Product Investments Drive Growth
Peer Group
Software - Application · 691 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAP | €191.32 | €169.59 | −11% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | −86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $78.82 | $43.66 | −45% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $252.05 | $249.28 | −1% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $138.43 | $43.73 | −68% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $340.39 | $112.57 | −67% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $329.11 | $42.27 | −87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $289.15 | $454.04 | +57% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $284.68 | $177.51 | −38% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $348.00 | $363.46 | +4% |
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