ELF Beauty Inc (ELF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $4.3B · ISIN US26856L1035
What is ELF Beauty Inc really worth?
ELF Beauty Inc
ELF · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 486% above our fair value of $18.32.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated today
Share price +22.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($27.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($10.71 to $27.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $21.05 – $218.00 · fair‑value band $10.71 – $27.00 · the $107.41 price screens above the $18.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
ELF Beauty Inc (ELF) currently trades at $107.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.32, implying the stock looks roughly 486.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $48.06 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $107.41 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $9.38, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Revenue grew 35.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −0.3%. Net debt stands at $627M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 118.1 (as of Jun 3, 2026). Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.71 (bear case) to $27.00 (bull case); at $107.41, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 116% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −83%, ELF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.1893 per share, which is 1.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($48.06) versus Multiples ($9.38). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., a beauty company, provides cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company offers eye, lip, face, and skin care products. It offers products under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, Naturium, and Rhode brand names.
Full company description
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., a beauty company, provides cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company offers eye, lip, face, and skin care products. It offers products under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, Naturium, and Rhode brand names. The company sells its products through national and international retailers and direct-to-consumer through its e-commerce channel. The company was formerly known as J.A. Cosmetics Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. in April 2016. e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
ELF Beauty Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2026 versus $392M in FY2022, a compound +42.9%/yr. Reported net income was $26.3M in FY2026, compounding +4.9%/yr from FY2022.
ELF screens 486% overvalued. Compare with L'Oréal S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ulta Beauty Slips 4% Despite Raised Guidance and Q2 Earnings Beat, e.l.f. Beauty Pulls Back
- e.l.f. Beauty Is Down 53% From Its All-Time High. Is the Sell-Off an Overreaction?
- Is e.l.f. Beauty’s (ELF) Pickle-Themed State Fair Stunt a Durable Brand Moat Signal?
- e.l.f. Brands Will Surprise and Delight as the Only Beauty Brand at the Minnesota State Fair
Peer Group
Household & Personal Products · 244 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Household & Personal Products stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| L'Oréal S.A LORL | C$24.76 | C$22.64 | −9% |
| Unilever PLC UNA | €55.92 | €40.47 | −28% |
| Colgate-Palmolive Company CL | $90.75 | $55.28 | −39% |
| 500696 500696 | ₹2,093 | ₹641.55 | −69% |
| Hindustan Unilever Limited HINDUNILVR | ₹2,015 | ₹789.46 | −61% |
| Kenvue Inc KVUE | $18.95 | $10.97 | −42% |
| Kimberly-Clark Corporation KMB | $109.55 | $79.71 | −27% |
| Henkel AG HEN3 | €75.82 | €85.95 | +13% |
| The Estée Lauder Companies Inc ESLA | €86.54 | €18.84 | −78% |
| Church & Dwight Co CHD | $101.26 | $65.12 | −36% |
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