Duolingo Inc (DUOL) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $5.8B · ISIN US26603R1068
What is Duolingo Inc really worth?
Duolingo Inc
DUOL · US
A solid business, but trading 83% above our fair value of $86.61.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +15.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($104.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $63.00 – $540.68 · fair‑value band $70.81 – $104.62 · the $158.82 price screens above the $86.61 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Duolingo Inc (DUOL) currently trades at $158.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $86.61, implying the stock looks roughly 83.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $478.10 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $158.82 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.43, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Duolingo Inc generated revenue of $1.1B at a net margin of 38.4%. Revenue grew 26.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 37.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $943M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $70.81 (bear case) to $104.62 (bull case); at $158.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 69% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −45%, DUOL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.91 per share, which is 6.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($478.10) versus Asset-Based ($22.43). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 43
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Duolingo, Inc. operates as a mobile learning platform in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers 250 language courses, including Spanish, English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Japanese, and Chinese through its Duolingo app. It also provides a digital English language proficiency assessment exam.
Full company description
Duolingo, Inc. operates as a mobile learning platform in the United States, the United Kingdom, and internationally. The company offers 250 language courses, including Spanish, English, French, German, Italian, Portuguese, Japanese, and Chinese through its Duolingo app. It also provides a digital English language proficiency assessment exam. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Duolingo Inc reported revenue of $1.0B in FY2025 versus $251M in FY2021, a compound +42.6%/yr. Reported net income was $414M in FY2025.
DUOL screens 83% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Duolingo Stock Is Shaking Off AI Fears
- Duolingo's Q2 Results Show User Improvement Signals, But Monetization Still Early, Wedbush Says
- Duolingo (DUOL) Stock May Be 48% Below Fair Value As Revenue Outlook Softens
- Duolingo (DUOL) Adds Sallie Krawcheck To Its Board And Audit Committee
Peer Group
Software - Application · 691 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAP | €191.32 | €169.59 | −11% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | −86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $78.82 | $43.66 | −45% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $252.05 | $249.28 | −1% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $138.43 | $43.73 | −68% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $340.39 | $112.57 | −67% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $329.11 | $42.27 | −87% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $289.15 | $454.04 | +57% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $284.68 | $177.51 | −38% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $348.00 | $363.46 | +4% |
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