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Datadog Inc (DDOG) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $92.6B · ISIN US23804L1035

What is Datadog Inc really worth?

DI Datadog Inc logo Datadog Inc DDOG · US
Price$214.76
Fair Value$7.24
Upside−96.6% ⚠
Quality52/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

A solid business, but trading 2,867% above our fair value of $7.24.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +41.5 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 3.7% net margin
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 20/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 16 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range $7.24 – $7.24

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price −25.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$288.15 $62.69 Fair Value $7.24 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $62.69 – $288.15 · the $214.76 price screens above the $7.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

Datadog Inc (DDOG) currently trades at $214.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.24, implying the stock looks roughly 2,867.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $68.56 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $214.76 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $5.54, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Datadog Inc generated revenue of $3.7B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 32.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.9%. Net debt stands at $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 119% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −97%, DDOG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.2639 per share, which is 3.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($0.2000 to $93.27). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income $8.10 $7.75 $6.42 74
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.58 $19.53 $28.94 73
FCF DCF $49.14 $78.34 $171.30 72
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $49.14 $78.34 $171.30 72
Owner Earnings $6.81 $17.75 $40.71 67
5Y Revenue Exit $34.44 $59.69 $112.43 67
5Y EBITDA Exit $14.58 $19.53 $28.94 73
5Y P/E Exit $17.34 $30.56 $46.81 67
10Y Revenue Exit $38.13 $82.97 $110.61 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $24.88 $40.20 $61.34 65
10Y P/E Exit $26.89 $46.14 $73.66 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.21 $15.44 $21.67 61
Lynch FV $7.98 $11.40 $14.82 59
PEG = 1.0 $7.98 $11.40 $14.82 55
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $0.1100 $0.2300 $0.3700 64
DDM Multi-Stage $0.1100 $0.2000 $0.2400 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $6.84 $9.12 $11.40 63
P/S Multiple $4.15 $5.54 $6.92 58
P/B Multiple $4.15 $5.54 $6.92 55
EV/EBITDA $1.43 $2.49 $3.56 65
EV/Revenue $25.76 $37.56 $49.35 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $5.64 $7.56 $11.28 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $46.12 $93.27 $170.54 72
Rev-Margin DCF $38.14 $68.56 $132.29 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income $8.10 $7.75 $6.42 74
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $11.52 $16.46 $21.40 65

Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($68.56) versus Dividend Discount ($0.2000). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 609.0 as of Jun 5, 2026
P/S ratio 19.1 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $0.4000 price ÷ EPS = P/E 609.0
Net margin 3.1% FY2025
Return on equity 3.9% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) −0.7% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 0.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $3.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +32.2% 3y avg +26.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +104%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.0B FY2025
Net debt $1.1B FY2025 · ≈ 1.1 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 36
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 100
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 10
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 50
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Datadog, Inc. operates an observability and security platform for cloud applications in the United States and internationally.

Full company description

Datadog, Inc. operates an observability and security platform for cloud applications in the United States and internationally. The company's products comprise infrastructure and application performance monitoring, log management, observability pipelines, synthetics, real user monitoring, product analytics, continuous profiler, database monitoring, data observability, LLM observability, error tracking, network monitoring, incident response, workflow automation and App builder, event management, bits AI SRE, cloud cost management, cloud security, code security, cloud SIEM, threat management, sensitive data scanner, and CI visibility. Datadog, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Datadog Inc reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $1.0B in FY2021, a compound +35.1%/yr. Reported net income was $108M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$3.4B
Latest YoY
+27.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+26.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+41.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (8Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+55.4%
Value creation/yr (3Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+28.8% (28.8 + 0.0)
Revenue +35.1%/yr
FY21 $1.0B
FY22 $1.7B
FY23 $2.1B
FY24 $2.7B
FY25 $3.4B
Net income
FY21 −$20.7M
FY22 −$50.2M
FY23 $48.6M
FY24 $184M
FY25 $108M

DDOG screens 2,867% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Datadog Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Datadog Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DDOG

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Software - Application · 691 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 52 · Below median
Fair Value upside −97% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median
Return on assets 0% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Revenue growth 32% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.26× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 609.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 24.82× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 25.23× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 92.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 1.60× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 37
PAST16 · sector 12
HEALTH87 · sector 98
DIVIDEND0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €191.32 €169.59 −11%
Shopify Inc SHOP C$209.78 C$28.76 −86%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $78.82 $43.66 −45%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $252.05 $249.28 −1%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $138.43 $43.73 −68%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $340.39 $112.57 −67%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $329.11 $42.27 −87%
Adobe Inc ADBE $289.15 $454.04 +57%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $284.68 $177.51 −38%
Intuit Inc INTU $348.00 $363.46 +4%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Datadog Inc (DDOG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.24 versus a price of $214.76, about −97% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DDOG?
Our model-based fair value for Datadog Inc is $7.24 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $214.76.
What is the quality score of DDOG?
Datadog Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Datadog Inc (DDOG)?
Datadog Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of DDOG?
The net profit margin of Datadog Inc is about 3.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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