Dropbox, Inc (DBX) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $6.9B
Dropbox, Inc
DBX · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $29.27 to $42.56 (+45.4%) since Jul 15, 2026. Share price +19.9% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 18% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($29.27 to $55.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Our model range runs from $29.27 (bear) to $55.85 (bull), base $42.56. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 88/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.97 – $35.93 · fair‑value band $29.27 – $55.85 · the $35.93 price screens below the $42.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Dropbox, Inc (DBX) currently trades at $35.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.56, implying the stock looks roughly 18.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 88/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dropbox, Inc generated revenue of $2.5B at a net margin of 18.7%. Revenue grew 0.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.8%. Net debt stands at $3.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $29.27 (bear case) to $55.85 (bull case); at $35.93, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades near its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at 18%, DBX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($92.26) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 85 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform enables individuals, families, teams, and organizations to collaborate for free through its website or app, or through a paid subscription plan for premium features.
Full company description
Dropbox, Inc. provides a content collaboration platform in the United States and internationally. The company's platform enables individuals, families, teams, and organizations to collaborate for free through its website or app, or through a paid subscription plan for premium features. Its platform consists of various elements, such as unified home for content, global sharing network, and product experiences and integrations. The company serves customers in the professional services, technology, media, education, industrial, consumer and retail, and financial services industries. The company was formerly known as Evenflow, Inc. and changed its name to Dropbox, Inc. in October 2009. Dropbox, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dropbox, Inc reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was $508M in FY2025, compounding +10.9%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- DBX Q2 Deep Dive: Leadership Transition and AI Integration Shape Outlook
- Dropbox Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Core FSS, 2026 Outlook Raised
- Dropbox Shares Decline Despite Earnings Beat as Revenue Growth Disappoints
- Dropbox expects $2.513B-$2.523B 2026 revenue while raising operating margin guidance to 40.0%-40.5%
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 369 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $506.06 | $365.74 | -28% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$7.22 | C$2.34 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.84 | $61.46 | -62% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €358.00 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$111.01 | A$70.69 | -36% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥67.70 | ¥30.89 | -54% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,679 | ₹6,897 | -41% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.58 | ¥1.05 | -89% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,610 | ₹241.68 | -85% |
| PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk GOTO | 50.00 IDR | 20.41 IDR | -59% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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