CareDx Inc (CDNA) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $1.3B · ISIN US14167L1035
What is CareDx Inc really worth?
CareDx Inc
CDNA · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 406% above our fair value of $9.85.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +5.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($12.58). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.90 – $95.11 · fair‑value band $7.12 – $12.58 · the $49.86 price screens above the $9.85 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
CareDx Inc (CDNA) currently trades at $49.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.85, implying the stock looks roughly 406.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $15.71 per share, and 0 of the 9 models we run sit above the $49.86 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.93, and 9 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, CareDx Inc generated revenue of $413M at a net margin of −2.0%. Revenue grew 39.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $39.2M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.12 (bear case) to $12.58 (bull case); at $49.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −54% fair-value upside, at −80%, CDNA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($15.71) versus Dividend Discount ($0.5300). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CareDx, Inc. provides solutions for improving outcomes for transplant patients and advancing organ health in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
CareDx, Inc. provides solutions for improving outcomes for transplant patients and advancing organ health in the United States and internationally. The company provides AlloSure Kidney, a donor-derived cell-free DNA (dd-cfDNA) solution for kidney transplant patients; AlloMap Heart, a gene expression profiling solution for heart transplant patients; AlloSure Heart, a dd-cfDNA solution for heart transplant patients; and AlloSure Lung, a dd-cfDNA solution for lung transplant patients. It also offers HeartCare, which provides information about distinct biological processes, such as immune quiescence, active injury, acute cellular rejection, and antibody mediated rejection; HistoMap Kidney, a solution that identifies allograft rejection and type of rejection in kidney transplant biopsy tissue; and AlloHeme, a monitoring test that predicts relapse in patients with acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndromes. In addition, the company provides QTYPE that enables precision in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) typing; Olerup SSP, which is used to type HLA alleles based on sequence specific primer technology; and Ottr, a transplant patient management software. Further, it offers AlloSeq Tx, a high-resolution HLA typing solution; AlloSeq cfDNA, a surveillance solution to measure dd-cfDNA in blood; AlloSeq HCT, a solution for chimerism testing for stem cell transplant recipients; Allocell, a solution that monitors the pharmacokinetics of engraftment and persistence of cells for patients who have received allogeneic cell therapy; and XynQAPI, MedActionPlan, CareDx pharmacy, AlloHome, and HLA Data Systems software solutions. It has a license agreement with Illumina, Inc. for the distribution, development, and commercialization of NGS products and technologies. The company was formerly known as XDx, Inc. and changed its name to CareDx, Inc. in March 2014. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CareDx Inc reported revenue of $380M in FY2025 versus $296M in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$21.4M in FY2025.
CDNA screens 406% overvalued. Compare with Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks Industry Outlook CareDx, BrightSpring and PACS
- Zacks.com featured highlights include CareDx, Healthcare Services, Forum Energy Tech, Amneal Pharma and Caterpillar
- Baron Discovery Fund Gains from Strategic Accumulation of CareDx (CDNA)
- CareDx Stock Is Up 300% Over the Past Year. Here’s How Much Upside Is Left.
Peer Group
Diagnostics & Research · 130 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Diagnostics & Research median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Diagnostics & Research stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO | $630.70 | $308.19 | −51% |
| Danaher Corporation DHR | $215.68 | $103.88 | −52% |
| WuXi AppTec Co 2359 | HK$189.30 | HK$150.16 | −21% |
| Lonza Group LONN | CHF 576.60 | CHF 259.80 | −55% |
| IDEXX Laboratories, Inc IDXX | $556.69 | $255.77 | −54% |
| Agilent Technologies, Inc A | $149.93 | $61.53 | −59% |
| Waters Corporation WAT | $416.15 | $121.96 | −71% |
| IQVIA Holdings IQV | $236.66 | $132.17 | −44% |
| Illumina, Inc ILMN | $215.59 | $95.51 | −56% |
| Mettler-Toledo International Inc MTD | $1,419 | $615.78 | −57% |
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