BT Group (BT-A) Fair Value & Analysis

Communication Services · GB · Market cap 18.8B GBX

A solid business, but screening 24% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
• A fairly wide model range (£1.10 to £2.66) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.9252 – £2.40 · fair‑value band £1.10 – £2.66 · the £1.97 price screens above the £1.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

BT Group (BT-A) currently trades at £1.97, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.49, implying the stock looks roughly 24.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, BT Group generated revenue of £19.7B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue declined 3.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.5%. Net debt stands at £22.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £1.10 (bear case) to £2.66 (bull case); at £1.97, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 30% fair-value upside, at -24%, BT-A screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Multiples (£2.40) versus Growth DCF (£0.8100). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

BT Group plc provides communications products and services in the United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Consumer, Business, International, and Openreach segments.

Full company description

BT Group plc provides communications products and services in the United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Americas, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates through Consumer, Business, International, and Openreach segments. It builds, owns, and operates fixed and mobile networks; and designs, builds, markets, sells, and supports network access, connectivity, and related products. The company also offers mobile, broadband, and landline, as well as entertainment services to individuals and households; connectivity, networking, cybersecurity, collaboration tools, cloud connectivity, and cloud services to private and public sector businesses; and managed solutions for larger businesses and public sector customers. In addition, it provides fixed and IP voice; unified communications; mobile; fixed and networking; managed services; and security, and cloud and IoT solutions. Further, the company develops, manages, and leases network infrastructure, including mobile cell and switch sites; and offers handsets, network equipment, consumer electronics, gaming and insurance. It provides its products and services under the BT, EE, Plusnet, and Openreach brands. The company was formerly known as Newgate Telecommunications Limited and changed its name to BT Group plc in September 2001. BT Group plc was founded in 1846 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

BT Group reported revenue of £19.7B in FY2026 versus £20.9B in FY2022, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was £1.1B in FY2026, compounding −4.1%/yr from FY2022.

BT-A screens 24% overvalued. Compare with China Mobile Limited →

Peer Group

Telecom Services · 253 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.