Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPS) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IT · Market cap €36.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Share price +4.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 13% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
- Our model range runs from €7.81 (bear) to €13.01 (bull), base €10.41. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 35/100 (below-average quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.25 – €20.32 · fair‑value band €7.81 – €13.01 · the €12.03 price screens above the €10.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A (BMPS) currently trades at €12.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.41, implying the stock looks roughly 13.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A generated revenue of €4.7B at a net margin of 59.6%. Revenue grew 95.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.3%. Net debt stands at €35.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €7.81 (bear case) to €13.01 (bull case); at €12.03, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 96% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at -13%, BMPS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€11.62) versus Dividend Discount (€3.58). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 88
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Corporate and Investment Banking.
Full company description
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides various banking products and services in Italy and internationally. It operates through four segments: Retail Banking, Wealth Management, Corporate Banking, and Large Corporate and Investment Banking. The company offers savings and deposit accounts, cards, advanced payment systems, insurance products, pensions, mortgages, and loans, as well as financial advisory, electronic payment, self-service customer operations, and consultancy services. It also provides asset management, financial planning, consultancy on non-financial services, and fiduciary and trust services; and credit intermediation, collaboration with trade associations, factoring offers, and third-party custody and storage services for dairy products. In addition, the company offers corporate and structured finance, medium and long-term credit, and specialized support, as well as leasing and bancassurance. It serves private customers, corporate and large group clients, and small and medium enterprises. The company was founded in 1472 and is headquartered in Siena, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena S.p.A reported revenue of €5.0B in FY2025 versus €3.2B in FY2021, a compound +11.7%/yr. Reported net income was €2.7B in FY2025, compounding +72.1%/yr from FY2021.
BMPS screens 13% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1086 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,350 IDR | 4,637 IDR | -27% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 168,100 KRW | 220,258 KRW | +31% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 3,110 IDR | 3,792 IDR | +22% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,130 IDR | 6,067 IDR | +47% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 8,400 ARS | +64% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 103,800 KRW | 146,032 KRW | +41% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 127,900 KRW | 210,506 KRW | +65% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,500 VND | 45,959 VND | -23% |
| Woori Financial Group 316140 | 33,000 KRW | 60,758 KRW | +84% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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