AXA SA (AXAN) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · MX · Market cap 1.8T MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 1,249 MXN to 623.98 MXN (−50.0%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price +11.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 30% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (779.97 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 377.77 MXN – 894.62 MXN · fair‑value band 467.98 MXN – 779.97 MXN · the 888.28 MXN price screens above the 623.98 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
AXA SA (AXAN) currently trades at 888.28 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 623.98 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 29.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, AXA SA generated revenue of 94.7B MXN at a net margin of 10.4%. Revenue grew 3.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.4%. Net debt stands at 38.2B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 467.98 MXN (bear case) to 779.97 MXN (bull case); at 888.28 MXN, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -30%, AXAN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (40.62 MXN) versus Asset-Based (15.54 MXN). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AXA SA, through its subsidiaries, insurance, asset management, and banking services worldwide. The company operates through France, Europe, AXA XL, Asia, Africa & EME-LATAM, and Transversal & Other segments. It offers life and savings insurance and property and casualty insurance products.
Full company description
AXA SA, through its subsidiaries, insurance, asset management, and banking services worldwide. The company operates through France, Europe, AXA XL, Asia, Africa & EME-LATAM, and Transversal & Other segments. It offers life and savings insurance and property and casualty insurance products. The company also provides protection and retirement products for individual and professional customers; reinsurance coverages; property, primary and excess casualty, excess and surplus lines, environmental liability, professional liability, construction, marine, energy, aviation and satellite, fine art and specie, livestock and aquaculture, accident and health, and crisis management. In addition, it offers reinsurance solutions with casualty, property risk, property catastrophe, specialty, and other reinsurance; proportional and non-proportional, and facultative reinsurance; risk management solutions and consulting services; integrated ecosystem between healthcare solutions and the insurance coverage, which includes onsite services in clinics, remote teleconsultation and digital services, and home services; travel insurance and assistance services, as well as AXA Multilink platform, a B2B2C platform; Sophia, the customer facing GenAI chatbot; and EMMA, a digital assistant. Further, the company offers motor, household, property and general liability, banking, savings, health, term life, whole life, universal life, endowment, deferred and immediate annuities, and other investment-based products for retail/individual and commercial/group customers. AXA SA was founded in 1852 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AXA SA reported revenue of 106B MXN in FY2025 versus 112B MXN in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was 9.8B MXN in FY2025, compounding +7.7%/yr from FY2021.
AXAN screens 30% overvalued. Compare with Berkshire Hathaway Inc →
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Berkshire Hathaway Inc BRKB | 8,562 MXN | 10,429 MXN | +22% |
| Allianz SE ALV | €437.80 | €266.04 | -39% |
| Zurich Insurance Group ZURN | CHF 589.20 | CHF 392.99 | -33% |
| Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A G | €43.88 | €13.91 | -68% |
| BB Seguridade Participações S.A BBSE3 | R$37.26 | R$33.94 | -9% |
| Tryg A/S TRYG | kr 151.70 | kr 67.88 | -55% |
| PT Sinar Mas Multiartha Tbk SMMA | 20,175 IDR | 4,617 IDR | -77% |
| ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company ICICIGI | ₹1,635 | ₹589.67 | -64% |
| The New India Assurance Company NIACL | ₹181.09 | ₹128.57 | -29% |
| Seoul Guarantee Insurance Co 031210 | 44,150 KRW | 56,679 KRW | +28% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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