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Allwyn AG (ALWN) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Discretionary · GR · Market cap €11.1B

What is Allwyn AG really worth?

AA Allwyn AG ALWN · AT
Price€13.01
Fair Value€11.82
Upside−9.2%
Quality77/100

A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value of €11.82.

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Strengths

Healthy Growth (revenue 3y +4.0 %/yr)
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 2.4% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
!Moderate moat 54/100
!Weak on valuation: 21 out of 100
Evidence: High Range €8.37 – €15.22

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from €11.72 to €11.82 (+0.9%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −3.2% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • A fairly wide model range (€8.37 to €15.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€19.02 €6.83 Fair Value €11.82 May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €6.83 – €19.02 · fair‑value band €8.37 – €15.22 · the €13.01 price screens above the €11.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Allwyn AG (ALWN) currently trades at €13.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.82, implying the stock looks roughly 10.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Discretionary sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €12.95 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the €13.01 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €2.25, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Revenue declined 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 94.8%. Net debt stands at €172M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 9.6. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €8.37 (bear case) to €15.22 (bull case); at €13.01, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Discretionary peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −9%, ALWN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.9136 per share, which is 7.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence €9.51 €13.99 €20.55 77
Growth DCF €9.73 €13.81 €19.49 75
Owner Earnings €8.22 €12.07 €17.72 73
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence €9.51 €13.99 €20.55 77
Owner Earnings €8.22 €12.07 €17.72 73
5Y Revenue Exit €4.66 €5.84 €7.19 71
5Y EBITDA Exit €8.85 €13.45 €18.65 72
5Y P/E Exit €9.27 €14.22 €19.23 68
10Y Revenue Exit €6.31 €7.75 €9.39 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €9.01 €12.95 €17.90 66
10Y P/E Exit €9.27 €13.47 €18.33 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €4.12 €10.93 €14.29 62
PEG = 1.0 €2.11 €3.01 €3.92 55
EPV €6.76 €7.83 €8.77 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €5.37 €11.11 €17.72 63
DDM Multi-Stage €5.37 €8.31 €11.46 63
Multiples
P/E Multiple €10.00 €13.34 €16.67 63
P/S Multiple €1.86 €2.47 €3.09 58
P/B Multiple €1.59 €2.12 €2.65 55
EV/EBIT €11.86 €15.71 €19.56 66
EV/EBITDA €9.59 €12.68 €15.76 67
EV/Revenue €2.06 €2.80 €3.54 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.2700 €0.3600 €0.5300 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €9.73 €13.81 €19.49 75
Rev-Margin DCF €4.66 €6.00 €7.54 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income €1.87 €2.25 €11.59 61
ROIC Compounder €6.80 €7.93 €8.95 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €7.82 €11.17 €14.52 65

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€12.95) versus Asset-Based (€0.3600). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 9.6
P/S ratio 2.83 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €1.35 price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.6
Dividend yield 4.2% payout 40.5%
Net margin 29.4% FY2025
Return on equity 94.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 29.3% avg 4y
Operating margin 6.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue growth (YoY) −2.4% 3y avg +4.0%
EPS growth (YoY) −16.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €670M FY2025
Net debt €172M FY2025 · ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 77/100

Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40

Profitability 87
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 91
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 63
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 27
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 11
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Allwyn AG reported revenue of €1.6B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2022, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €483M in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€1.6B
Latest YoY
+4.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.0%
Value creation/yr (3Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 3 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+3.5% (−0.7 + 4.2)
Revenue +4.0%/yr
FY22 €1.5B
FY23 €1.4B
FY24 €1.6B
FY25 €1.6B
Net income −6.5%/yr
FY22 €592M
FY23 €408M
FY24 €486M
FY25 €483M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Allwyn AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALWN

Peer Group

Consumer Discretionary · 3805 stocks

How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Casinos & Gaming” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)

Quality Score 77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −9% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 95% · Top 25%
Return on assets 5% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Revenue growth −2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.20× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.6× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 26.25× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.23× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 19.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 12.4× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.12× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE21 · sector 20
FUTURE0 · sector 14
PAST100 · sector 22
HEALTH40 · sector 96
DIVIDEND84 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

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Frequently asked questions

Is Allwyn AG (ALWN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €11.82 versus a price of €13.01, about −9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ALWN?
Our model-based fair value for Allwyn AG is €11.82 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €13.01.
What is the quality score of ALWN?
Allwyn AG has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the net profit margin of ALWN?
The net profit margin of Allwyn AG is about 2.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Allwyn AG pay a dividend?
Allwyn AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
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