Allwyn AG (ALWN) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Discretionary · GR · Market cap €11.1B
What is Allwyn AG really worth?
A strong business, currently priced close to our fair value of €11.82.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Fair value updated Sep 2, 2026, revised from €11.72 to €11.82 (+0.9%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −3.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (€8.37 to €15.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.83 – €19.02 · fair‑value band €8.37 – €15.22 · the €13.01 price screens above the €11.82 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Allwyn AG (ALWN) currently trades at €13.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €11.82, implying the stock looks roughly 10.1% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Discretionary sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €12.95 per share, and 7 of the 25 models we run sit above the €13.01 price. Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at €2.25, and 18 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Revenue declined 2.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 94.8%. Net debt stands at €172M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 9.6. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €8.37 (bear case) to €15.22 (bull case); at €13.01, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Discretionary peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −9%, ALWN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.9136 per share, which is 7.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€12.95) versus Asset-Based (€0.3600). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 77 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Allwyn AG reported revenue of €1.6B in FY2025 versus €1.5B in FY2022, a compound +4.0%/yr. Reported net income was €483M in FY2025, compounding −6.5%/yr from FY2022.
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Peer Group
Consumer Discretionary · 3805 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Casinos & Gaming” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Consumer Discretionary median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Casinos & Gaming stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BYLOT BYLOT | €1.17 | €0.3900 | −67% |
| Alibaba Group 89988 | HK$97.45 | HK$48.38 | −50% |
| JD.com, Inc 89618 | ¥95.45 | ¥73.98 | −22% |
| Zhong Jia Guo Xin Holdings 2997 | HK$0.0990 | HK$0.1466 | +48% |
| Fameglow Holdings 8603 | HK$21.78 | HK$11.13 | −49% |
| BBBY BBBY | $4.15 | $0.5600 | −87% |
| SAPL SAPL | ₹3,998 | ₹2,275 | −43% |
| MCCHRLSB MCCHRLSB | ₹670.10 | ₹142.86 | −79% |
| RAJPALAYAM RAJPALAYAM | ₹794.95 | ₹1,694 | +113% |
| ISTLTD ISTLTD | ₹659.50 | ₹806.60 | +22% |
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