Align Technology Inc (ALGN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $12.8B · ISIN US0162551016
What is Align Technology Inc really worth?
Align Technology Inc
ALGN · US
A solid business, but trading 27% above our fair value of $126.05.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −7.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 73/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above our optimistic bull case: the favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $124.88 – $729.92 · fair‑value band $94.54 – $157.57 · the $159.86 price screens above the $126.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Align Technology Inc (ALGN) currently trades at $159.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $126.05, implying the stock looks roughly 26.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $212.87 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the $159.86 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $37.88, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Align Technology Inc generated revenue of $4.1B at a net margin of 10.5%. Revenue grew 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $965M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $94.54 (bear case) to $157.57 (bull case); at $159.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −21%, ALGN screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.97 per share, which is 3.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($212.87) versus Asset-Based ($37.88). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally.
Full company description
Align Technology, Inc. provides Invisalign clear aligners, Vivera retainers, and iTero intraoral scanners and services in the United States, Switzerland, and internationally. The company's Clear Aligner segment offers Invisalign comprehensive package to treat adults and teens malocclusion and features, and orthodontic needs of teenage or younger patients; and Invisalign First Phase I and Invisalign First Comprehensive Phase 2 package for younger patients between the ages of six and ten years with a mixture of primary/baby and permanent teeth. This segment also provides Invisalign express, Invisalign lite, and Invisalign moderate; Invisalign Go, Invisalign Go express, and Invisalign Go Plus; retention products, Invisalign training, adjusting tools used by dental professionals during treatment, ancillary Invisalign accessory products, and other oral health products; Invisalign Professional Whitening system; Invisalign Palatal Expander, a 3D printed orthodontic device; and 3D printing solutions. Its Imaging Systems and CAD/CAM Services segment offers iTero intraoral scanning system, a single hardware platform for restorative or orthodontic procedures; exocad, a computer-aided design and computer-aided manufacturing software; orthodontist software for digital records storage, orthodontic diagnosis, and fabrication of printed models and retainers; and restorative software for general practitioner dentists, prosthodontists, periodontists, and oral surgeons. This segment also offers Invisalign outcome simulator, a chair-side and cloud-based application for the iTero scanner; Invisalign progress assessment tool; Align Oral Health Suite, a digital interface for dental consultations; iTero TimeLapse technology for doctors or practitioners to compare a patient's historic 3D scans to the present-day scan; and subscription software, disposables, rents scanners, and pay per scan services. Align Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Tempe, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Align Technology Inc reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $4.0B in FY2021, a compound +0.5%/yr. Reported net income was $410M in FY2025, compounding −14.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +18.0 % · buybacks/dilution +1.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ALGN screens 27% overvalued. Compare with Intuitive Surgical, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Quentin Blackford to Join Align Technology Board of Directors
- Why Is Align Technology (ALGN) Down 8.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
- Are Wall Street Analysts Bullish on Align Technology Stock?
- How the U.K. VAT Ruling Could Reshape Align's 2026 Earnings Outlook
Peer Group
Medical Instruments & Supplies · 194 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intuitive Surgical, Inc ISRG | $367.07 | $150.04 | −59% |
| EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme EL | €160.35 | €94.93 | −41% |
| Medline Inc MDLN | $36.59 | $30.15 | −18% |
| Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX | $187.12 | $100.46 | −46% |
| Alcon Inc ALC | $72.23 | $39.78 | −45% |
| ResMed Inc RMD | A$33.19 | A$26.23 | −21% |
| West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc WST | $337.47 | $141.58 | −58% |
| Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A DIM | €197.70 | €48.88 | −75% |
| Straumann Holding STMN | CHF 97.38 | CHF 47.31 | −51% |
| Sartorius Aktiengesellschaft SRT3 | €253.50 | €63.30 | −75% |
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