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Alcon AG (ALC) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $34.3B · ISIN CH0432492467

What is Alcon AG really worth?

AA Alcon AG logo Alcon AG ALC · US
Price$72.08
Fair Value$39.78
Upside−44.8%
Quality63/100

A solid business, but trading 81% above our fair value of $39.78.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +8.8 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 7.7% net margin
!Trails peers (5/15)
!Narrow moat 41/100
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 10 out of 100

For context

·0.49% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $27.93 – $51.63

Fair value as of: Aug 29, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 7 days ago

Share price +1.5% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($51.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
  • A fairly wide model range ($27.93 to $51.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$99.92 $55.68 Fair Value $39.78 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $55.68 – $99.92 · fair‑value band $27.93 – $51.63 · the $72.08 price screens above the $39.78 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 29, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Alcon AG (ALC) currently trades at $72.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $39.78, implying the stock looks roughly 81.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $43.87 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $72.08 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.94, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Alcon AG generated revenue of $10.6B at a net margin of 7.7%. Revenue grew 9.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.7%. Net debt stands at $3.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 29, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $27.93 (bear case) to $51.63 (bull case); at $72.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −46% fair-value upside, at −45%, ALC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.8948 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $33.03 $53.03 $82.72 79
Growth DCF $33.90 $51.94 $77.30 78
Residual Income $34.00 $33.84 $31.17 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $33.03 $53.03 $82.72 79
Owner Earnings $30.76 $49.60 $77.58 75
5Y Revenue Exit $23.23 $37.63 $55.47 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $39.06 $66.65 $98.24 74
5Y P/E Exit $26.64 $43.87 $61.44 70
10Y Revenue Exit $25.71 $39.52 $57.04 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $36.48 $59.45 $89.08 67
10Y P/E Exit $28.62 $43.81 $61.51 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $13.66 $38.27 $50.34 65
Lynch FV $7.72 $11.03 $14.34 61
PEG = 1.0 $7.72 $11.03 $14.34 57
EPV $16.87 $20.71 $24.07 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $3.13 $6.50 $10.31 66
DDM Multi-Stage $3.13 $4.94 $6.82 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $33.16 $44.21 $55.26 63
P/S Multiple $25.62 $34.16 $42.70 58
P/B Multiple $25.62 $34.16 $42.70 55
EV/EBIT $29.38 $41.23 $53.08 65
EV/EBITDA $48.75 $67.06 $85.36 67
EV/Revenue $19.20 $30.08 $40.95 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $22.59 $30.27 $45.18 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $33.90 $51.94 $77.30 78
Rev-Margin DCF $23.23 $38.02 $54.68 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $34.00 $33.84 $31.17 76
ROIC Compounder $16.87 $20.71 $24.07 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $26.36 $37.65 $48.95 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($43.87) versus Dividend Discount ($4.94). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 43.2
P/S ratio 4.07 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $1.67 price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.2
Dividend yield 0.5% payout 21.1%
Net margin 9.4% FY2025
Return on equity 3.7% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.4% avg 5y
Operating margin 12.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $10.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.4% 3y avg +6.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −44.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.7B FY2025
Net debt $3.7B FY2025 · ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 29, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 37
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 79
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 71
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 83
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 78
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 29
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Surgical and Vision Care.

Full company description

Alcon Inc. researches, develops, manufactures, distributes, and sells eye care products worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Surgical and Vision Care. It offers equipment, instrumentation and diagnostics, intraocular lenses (IOLs), and other implantables; and consumables, including viscoelastics, surgical solutions, incisional instruments, surgical custom packs, and other products for surgical procedures. The company's cataract products include Unity CS, LenSx laser system, Verion reference unit and Verion digital marker, ARGOS biometer, SMARTCATARACT health platform, NGENUITY 3D visualization system, LuxOR surgical ophthalmic microscope, and ORA system for intra-operative measurements; ADI cloud-based platform; and implantable products, including monofocal, Toric, and Presbyopia-Correcting IOLs, as well as delivery systems, such as AutonoMe and UltraSert. In addition, it provides Custom Pak surgical procedure packs vitreoretinal products comprising constellation vision systems, procedure packs, lasers and hand-held microsurgical instruments, Grieshaber, MIVS instruments; scissors, forceps and micro-instruments, medical grade vitreous tamponades, and Hypervit probes; and refractive surgery products, including WaveLight and Contoura Vision used for LASIK refractive procedure. Further, the company offers daily disposable, reusable, and color-enhancing contact lenses; ocular health products, such as dry eye, ocular allergies, glaucoma, and contact lens care, as well as ocular vitamins and redness relievers. The company was formerly known as Alcon Universal S.A. and changed its name to Alcon Inc. in December 2001. Alcon Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Alcon AG reported revenue of $10.4B in FY2025 versus $8.3B in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was $980M in FY2025, compounding +27.1%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$10.4B
Latest YoY
+4.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (10Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+21.5% (21.0 + 0.5)
Revenue +5.8%/yr
FY21 $8.3B
FY22 $8.7B
FY23 $9.5B
FY24 $9.9B
FY25 $10.4B
Net income +27.1%/yr
FY21 $376M
FY22 $335M
FY23 $974M
FY24 $1.0B
FY25 $980M

ALC screens 81% overvalued. Compare with Intuitive Surgical, Inc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alcon AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALC

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Medical Instruments & Supplies · 194 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 63 · Above median
Fair Value upside −45% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Above median
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.21× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Instruments & Supplies median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 43.2× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.56× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.22× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 19.8× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 16.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.57× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE47 · sector 29
PAST15 · sector 26
HEALTH90 · sector 96
DIVIDEND10 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Instruments & Supplies stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 29, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Intuitive Surgical, Inc ISRG $367.07 $150.04 −59%
EssilorLuxottica Société anonyme EL €160.35 €94.93 −41%
Medline Inc MDLN $36.59 $30.15 −18%
Becton, Dickinson and Company BDX $187.12 $100.46 −46%
ResMed Inc RMD A$33.19 A$26.23 −21%
West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc WST $337.47 $141.58 −58%
Sartorius Stedim Biotech S.A DIM €197.70 €48.88 −75%
Straumann Holding STMN CHF 97.38 CHF 47.31 −51%
Sartorius Aktiengesellschaft SRT3 €253.50 €63.30 −75%
Coloplast A/S COLOB kr 435.80 kr 382.22 −12%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alcon AG (ALC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $39.78 versus a price of $72.08, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALC?
Our model-based fair value for Alcon AG is $39.78 (as of Aug 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $72.08.
What is the quality score of ALC?
Alcon AG has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Alcon AG (ALC)?
Alcon AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 29, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALC?
The net profit margin of Alcon AG is about 7.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Alcon AG pay a dividend?
Alcon AG currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.49% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 29, 2026).
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