TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.6B · ISIN US89377M1099
What is TransMedics Group Inc really worth?
TransMedics Group Inc
TMDX · US
A solid business, but trading 71% above our fair value of $50.86.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +7.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($38.15 to $114.33). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.58 – $176.11 · fair‑value band $38.15 – $114.33 · the $86.98 price screens above the $50.86 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) currently trades at $86.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.86, implying the stock looks roughly 71.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $255.81 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $86.98 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.17, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, TransMedics Group Inc generated revenue of $636M at a net margin of 27.0%. Revenue grew 21.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 45.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $18.7M. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $38.15 (bear case) to $114.33 (bull case); at $86.98, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic. The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −42%, TMDX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.97 per share, which is 5.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($255.81) versus Asset-Based ($9.17). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
TransMedics Group, Inc., a commercial-stage medical technology company, engages in transforming organ transplant therapy for end-stage organ failure patients in the United States and internationally. The company provides Organ Care System (OCS), a portable organ perfusion, optimization, and monitoring system that utilizes its proprietary and customized technology to replicate near-physiologic conditions for donor organs outside of the human body. Its OCS includes OCS LUNG for the preservation of standard criteria donor lungs for double-lung transplantation; OCS Heart, a technology for preservation of DBD donor hearts deemed unsuitable due to limitations of cold storage and for ex vivo reanimation, functional monitoring, and beating-heart preservation of donation-after-circulatory-death hearts; and OCS Liver for the preservation of DBD and DCD of donor livers. The company also developed national OCS program, a turnkey solution for outsourced organ retrieval; and provides OCS organ management and logistics services, including aviation and ground transportation, and other coordination activity. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TransMedics Group Inc reported revenue of $605M in FY2025 versus $30.3M in FY2021, a compound +111.5%/yr. Reported net income was $190M in FY2025.
TMDX screens 71% overvalued. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →
Peer Group
Medical Devices · 351 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott Laboratories, ABT | $112.47 | $74.79 | −34% |
| Stryker Corporation SYK | $322.12 | $186.28 | −42% |
| Medtronic plc MDT | $89.97 | $65.57 | −27% |
| Boston Scientific Corporation BSX | $46.84 | $30.73 | −34% |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW | $90.78 | $41.02 | −55% |
| Siemens Healthineers AG SHL | €39.52 | €33.87 | −14% |
| DexCom, Inc DXCM | $90.82 | $38.95 | −57% |
| GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC | $74.82 | $64.13 | −14% |
| Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA | €23.69 | €14.36 | −39% |
| Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 | ¥150.63 | ¥147.63 | −2% |
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