DexCom Inc (DXCM) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · US · Market cap $28.9B · ISIN US2521311074

What is DexCom Inc really worth?

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

• A high-quality business (quality 82/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($48.99). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $54.84 – $162.82 · fair‑value band $28.90 – $48.99 · the $89.71 price screens above the $38.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

DexCom Inc (DXCM) currently trades at $89.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.95, implying the stock looks roughly 130.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 82/100 (high quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $95.12 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $89.71 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.77, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, DexCom Inc generated revenue of $4.8B at a net margin of 19.3%. Revenue grew 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 35.6%. Net debt stands at $472M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $28.90 (bear case) to $48.99 (bull case); at $89.71, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −57%, DXCM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.58 per share, which is 4.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($95.12) versus Asset-Based ($4.77). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

DexCom, Inc., a medical device company, focuses on the design, development, and commercialization of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for the management of diabetes and metabolic health in the United States and internationally.

Full company description

DexCom, Inc., a medical device company, focuses on the design, development, and commercialization of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems for the management of diabetes and metabolic health in the United States and internationally. The company offers Dexcom G7 and G7 15 Day, an integrated continuous glucose monitoring system; Dexcom G6, a CGM system; Dexcom ONE+ to replace fingerstick blood glucose testing for diabetes treatment decisions; Stelo, a biosensor designed for adults with prediabetes and Type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin; Dexcom Share, a remote monitoring system; and Dexcom Follow application. It markets its products directly to endocrinologists, physicians, and diabetes educators. The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

DexCom Inc reported revenue of $4.7B in FY2025 versus $2.4B in FY2021, a compound +17.5%/yr. Reported net income was $836M in FY2025, compounding +40.1%/yr from FY2021.

DXCM screens 130% overvalued. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →

Peer Group

Medical Devices · 351 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

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