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Samrat Forgings Ltd (SAMRATFORG) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · IN · Market cap ₹1.2B (≈ $13.1M) · ISIN INE412J01010

What is Samrat Forgings Ltd really worth?

SF Samrat Forgings Ltd SAMRATFORG · BSE
Price₹242.00
Fair Value₹138.15
Upside−42.9%
Quality44/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 75% above our fair value of ₹138.15.

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Strengths

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.5 %/yr)
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 2.3% net margin
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 38/100
Evidence: High Range ₹51.98 – ₹206.72

Fair value as of: Aug 26, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated 10 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 26, 2026, revised from ₹143.01 to ₹138.15 (−3.4%) since Aug 22, 2026. Share price +15.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹206.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The model range is unusually wide (₹51.98 to ₹206.72). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

₹550.00 ₹43.60 Fair Value ₹138.15 Nov 2020 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹43.60 – ₹550.00 · fair‑value band ₹51.98 – ₹206.72 · the ₹242.00 price screens above the ₹138.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 26, 2026.

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Analysis

Samrat Forgings Ltd (SAMRATFORG) currently trades at ₹242.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹138.15, implying the stock looks roughly 75.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹184.33 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the ₹242.00 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹55.45, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Samrat Forgings Ltd generated revenue of ₹2.0B at a net margin of 2.2%. Revenue declined 1.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.2%. Net debt stands at ₹955M. Fundamentals as of Aug 26, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ₹51.98 (bear case) to ₹206.72 (bull case); at ₹242.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 49% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −43%, SAMRATFORG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ₹3.77 per share, which is 2.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence ₹0.2500 ₹49.41 77
Growth DCF ₹41.52 75
5Y EBITDA Exit ₹102.80 ₹273.66 ₹480.79 71
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence ₹0.2500 ₹49.41 77
5Y Revenue Exit ₹52.26 ₹175.84 ₹339.87 67
5Y EBITDA Exit ₹102.80 ₹273.66 ₹480.79 71
5Y P/E Exit ₹73.59 ₹154.09 68
10Y Revenue Exit ₹9.96 ₹108.13 ₹250.44 58
10Y EBITDA Exit ₹45.66 ₹171.34 ₹351.86 62
10Y P/E Exit ₹42.05 ₹116.73 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ₹59.69 ₹218.17 ₹294.46 64
Lynch FV ₹51.98 ₹74.26 ₹96.54 61
PEG = 1.0 ₹51.98 ₹74.26 ₹96.54 57
EPV ₹50.22 ₹71.01 ₹88.33 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple ₹138.25 ₹184.33 ₹230.42 63
P/S Multiple ₹111.92 ₹149.22 ₹186.53 58
P/B Multiple ₹111.92 ₹149.22 ₹186.53 55
EV/EBIT ₹205.31 ₹307.82 ₹410.33 65
EV/EBITDA ₹225.67 ₹334.97 ₹444.26 66
EV/Revenue ₹117.28 ₹211.34 ₹305.41 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ₹41.38 ₹55.45 ₹82.77 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ₹41.52 75
Rev-Margin DCF ₹52.26 ₹172.30 ₹315.55 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income ₹69.48 ₹76.22 ₹100.42 71
ROIC Compounder ₹50.22 ₹71.01 ₹94.86 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ₹97.77 ₹139.68 ₹181.58 67

Widest divergence: Multiples (₹184.33) versus Asset-Based (₹55.45). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 25.7
P/S ratio 0.56 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) ₹9.41 price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.7
Net margin 2.2% FY2026
Return on equity 11.2% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 6.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) ₹2.0B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −4.8% 3y avg +3.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +18.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow ₹34.4M FY2026
Net debt ₹955M FY2026 · ≈ 27.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 26, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42

Profitability 54
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 42
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 15
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 40
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Samrat Forgings Ltd reported revenue of ₹2.0B in FY2026 versus ₹1.4B in FY2022, a compound +9.8%/yr. Reported net income was ₹43.9M in FY2026, compounding +5.4%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 79/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
₹2.0B
Latest YoY
+6.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+11.5%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in INR) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+8.6% (8.6 + 0.0)
Revenue +9.8%/yr
FY22 ₹1.4B
FY23 ₹1.8B
FY24 ₹1.6B
FY25 ₹1.9B
FY26 ₹2.0B
Net income +5.4%/yr
FY22 ₹35.6M
FY23 ₹48.9M
FY24 ₹29.7M
FY25 ₹51.0M
FY26 ₹43.9M

SAMRATFORG screens 75% overvalued. Compare with SAPL →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Samrat Forgings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAMRATFORG

Peer Group

Industrials · 5415 stocks

How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Auto Components” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)

Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −43% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth −5% · Below median
Debt / equity 1.24× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Industrials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 2.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 0.62× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 10.3× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 5
FUTURE0 · sector 23
PAST45 · sector 27
HEALTH38 · sector 94
DIVIDEND0 · sector 35

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Components stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 26, 2026).

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SALAUTO SALAUTO ₹201.40 ₹177.67 −12%
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Swaraj Automotives Limited 539353 ₹201.05 ₹465.32 +131%
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co 3750 HK$652.50 HK$394.19 −40%
Delta Electronics (Thailand) Public Company DELTA 246.00 THB 40.28 THB −84%
Atlas Copco AB ATCOA kr 206.60 kr 112.59 −46%
ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 7.20 THB 14.40 THB +100%
AB Volvo (publ), VOLVA kr 351.40 kr 288.08 −18%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Samrat Forgings Ltd (SAMRATFORG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹138.15 versus a price of ₹242.00, about −43% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAMRATFORG?
Our model-based fair value for Samrat Forgings Ltd is ₹138.15 (as of Aug 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹242.00.
What is the quality score of SAMRATFORG?
Samrat Forgings Ltd has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Samrat Forgings Ltd (SAMRATFORG)?
Samrat Forgings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹2.0B (latest available figure, as of Aug 26, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SAMRATFORG?
The net profit margin of Samrat Forgings Ltd is about 2.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
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