Penumbra Inc (PEN) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $12.6B · ISIN US70975L1070
What is Penumbra Inc really worth?
Penumbra Inc
PEN · US
A solid business, but trading 318% above our fair value of $76.80.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −0.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($122.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($57.60 to $122.54) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $116.09 – $359.40 · fair‑value band $57.60 – $122.54 · the $321.14 price screens above the $76.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Penumbra Inc (PEN) currently trades at $321.14, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $76.80, implying the stock looks roughly 318.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $136.02 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $321.14 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $24.32, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Penumbra Inc generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 11.8%. Revenue grew 15.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.7%. Net debt stands at $32.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $57.60 (bear case) to $122.54 (bull case); at $321.14, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −76%, PEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.93 per share, which is 3.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($136.02) versus Dividend Discount ($3.29). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 71 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Penumbra, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Penumbra, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets medical devices in the United States and internationally. It offers computer-assisted vacuum thrombectomy; peripheral thrombectomy products, including the Indigo System for power aspiration of thrombus in the body; Lightning Flash, a mechanical thrombectomy system; Lightning Bolt 7, an arterial thrombectomy system; and CAT RX. It also provides access products, including guide catheters and the Penumbra distal delivery catheters under the Neuron, Neuron MAX, BENCHMARK, BMX, DDC, Access25; MIDWAY, and PX SLIM brands; Penumbra System, an integrated mechanical thrombectomy system comprising reperfusion catheters and separators, the 3D Revascularization device, aspiration tubing, aspiration pump, and other components and accessories under the Penumbra RED, SENDit, JET, ACE, BMX, Max, 3D Revascularization Device, and Penumbra ENGINE brands; and neuro embolization coiling systems that include the Penumbra Coil 400, for the treatment of aneurysms and other complex lesions, detachable coils of neurovascular lesions under the Penumbra SMART COIL, SwiftSET, and Penumbra SwiftPAC Coil brands; and POD400 and PAC400 brands. In addition, it provides peripheral embolization products, such as Ruby Embolization Platform, which consists of detachable coils for peripheral applications; Ruby LP and XL Embolization Platform; Penumbra LANTERN Delivery Microcatheter, a low-profile microcatheter with a high-flow lumen; POD (Penumbra Occlusion Device) System, a single device solution; Packing Coil LP; and Packing Coil, a complementary device for use in other peripheral embolization products. Further, it offers neurosurgical tools comprising the Artemis Neuro Evacuation Device for surgical removal of fluid and tissue from the ventricles and cerebrum. It sells its products through direct sales organizations and distributors. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Alameda, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Penumbra Inc reported revenue of $1.4B in FY2025 versus $748M in FY2021, a compound +17.1%/yr. Reported net income was $178M in FY2025, compounding +186.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +24.2 % · buybacks/dilution −7.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PEN screens 318% overvalued. Compare with Abbott Laboratories, →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TFX or PEN: Which Is the Better Value Stock Right Now?
- TFX vs. PEN: Which Stock Is the Better Value Option?
- Penumbra GAAP EPS of $0.88, revenue of $390M
- Penumbra, Inc. Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
Peer Group
Medical Devices · 351 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Devices median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Devices stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abbott Laboratories, ABT | $112.47 | $74.79 | −34% |
| Stryker Corporation SYK | $322.12 | $186.28 | −42% |
| Medtronic plc MDT | $89.97 | $65.57 | −27% |
| Boston Scientific Corporation BSX | $46.84 | $30.73 | −34% |
| Edwards Lifesciences Corporation EW | $89.78 | $41.02 | −54% |
| Siemens Healthineers AG SHL | €39.52 | €33.87 | −14% |
| DexCom, Inc DXCM | $90.82 | $38.95 | −57% |
| GE HealthCare Technologies Inc GEHC | $74.82 | $64.13 | −14% |
| Koninklijke Philips N.V PHIA | €23.69 | €14.36 | −39% |
| Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co 300760 | ¥150.63 | ¥147.63 | −2% |
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