LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $19.1B · ISIN USN537451007
What is LyondellBasell Industries NV really worth?
LyondellBasell Industries NV
LYB · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 4,305% above our fair value of $1.47.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +6.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.47 to $2.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $40.28 – $90.21 · fair‑value band $1.47 – $2.85 · the $64.76 price screens above the $1.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) currently trades at $64.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.47, implying the stock looks roughly 4,305.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $6.06 per share, and 0 of the 5 models we run sit above the $64.76 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $0.3800, and 5 of the 5 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, LyondellBasell Industries NV generated revenue of $29.7B at a net margin of −2.7%. Revenue declined 6.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −6.0%. Net debt stands at $12.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.47 (bear case) to $2.85 (bull case); at $64.76, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −58% fair-value upside, at −98%, LYB screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($54.92) versus DCF Models ($0.3800). Highest evidence: 5Y EBITDA Exit (72).
Notify me when LYB reaches fair value
Put LYB on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 56
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally.
Full company description
LyondellBasell Industries N.V. operates as a chemical company in the United States, Germany, China, Mexico, Italy, Japan, France, Poland, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates in five segments: Olefins and Polyolefins"Americas; Olefins and Polyolefins"Europe, Asia, International; Intermediates and Derivatives; Advanced Polymer Solutions; and Technology. The company produces and markets olefins and co-products, such as ethylene, aromatics, propylene and butadiene; polyolefins; polyethylene; polypropylene homopolymers and copolymers; propylene oxide and derivatives; oxyfuels and related products; and intermediate chemicals, such as styrene monomer and acetyls. It also produces and markets compounding and solutions, including polypropylene compounds, engineered plastics, masterbatches, and engineered composites and colors. In addition, it develops and licenses chemical and polyolefin process technologies; and manufactures and sells polyolefin catalysts and serves food packaging, home furnishings, automotive components, and paints and coatings applications. LyondellBasell Industries N.V. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
LyondellBasell Industries NV reported revenue of $30.2B in FY2025 versus $46.2B in FY2021, a compound −10.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$743M in FY2025.
of which total revenue +1.5 % · buybacks/dilution +4.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
LYB screens 4,305% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) Draws Shell Chemicals Bid Attention On An Undervalued View
- Shell’s Chemicals Exit Attracts XOM and LYB: Capital Discipline or Missed Opportunity?
- Exxon and LyondellBasell Eye Shell’s US Chemicals Portfolio – FT
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 695 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $485.35 | $222.03 | −54% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $344.86 | $143.38 | −58% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $286.75 | $96.18 | −66% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $308.09 | $122.14 | −60% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,282 | CHF 1,498 | −54% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥77.66 | ¥68.03 | −12% |
| 500820 500820 | ₹2,757 | ₹557.43 | −80% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 456.40 | kr 169.99 | −63% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,630 | ₹696.23 | −74% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $114.22 | $71.31 | −38% |
Compare LyondellBasell Industries NV with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of LYB?
What is the quality score of LYB?
What is the revenue of LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB)?
What is the net profit margin of LYB?
Does LyondellBasell Industries NV pay a dividend?
Watch LyondellBasell Industries NV in the live analysis
One click puts LyondellBasell Industries NV on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.