Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares (AYA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.7B · ISIN CA05466C1095
What is Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares really worth?
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares
AYA · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 454% above our fair value of $5.38.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 16, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 16, 2026, revised from $5.40 to $5.38 (−0.4%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +30.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.98 – $29.82 · fair‑value band $4.03 – $6.72 · the $29.82 price screens above the $5.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 16, 2026.
Analysis
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares (AYA) currently trades at $29.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.38, implying the stock looks roughly 454.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $13.62 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $29.82 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.92, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares generated revenue of $286M at a net margin of 30.5%. Revenue grew 246.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 24.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $22.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.03 (bear case) to $6.72 (bull case); at $29.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 261% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −73% fair-value upside, at −82%, AYA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.4077 per share, which is 7.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($13.62) versus Asset-Based ($1.92). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits.
Full company description
Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metals projects in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold and silver deposits. Its flagship project holds 100% interests in the Zgounder property located east of Agadir in the Proterozoic Siroua Massif of the Anti-Atlas Range, Morocco covering an area of approximately 378 square kilometers. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Mount Royal, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aya Gold & Silver Inc. Common Shares reported revenue of $202M in FY2025 versus $38.2M in FY2022, a compound +74.2%/yr. Reported net income was $45.6M in FY2025, compounding +360.7%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
AYA screens 454% overvalued. Compare with First Majestic Silver Corp →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Aya Gold & Silver Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Aya Gold & Silver expands exploration in Morocco
- Gold and mining shares rise as U.S.-Iran deal eases rate-hike fears
Peer Group
Materials · 3591 stocks
How this stock ranks against its sector: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median. (Industry “Silver” was too small, so the broader sector is used.)
Valuation Multiples vs Materials median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Silver stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Majestic Silver Corp AG | $21.74 | $5.78 | −73% |
| Discovery Silver Corp DSV | C$12.48 | C$3.82 | −69% |
| Endeavour Silver Corp EDR | C$15.65 | C$1.76 | −89% |
| Silvercorp Metals Inc SVM | $13.11 | $7.70 | −41% |
| Andean Precious Metals Corp APM | C$7.04 | C$12.33 | +75% |
| Apollo Silver Corp APGO | C$3.21 | C$0.5200 | −84% |
| Sotkamo Silver AB SOSI1 | €0.4290 | €0.1700 | −60% |
| Minaurum Silver Inc MGG | C$0.2900 | C$0.0400 | −86% |
| Argenta Silver Corp AGAG | C$0.5350 | C$0.0600 | −89% |
| Excellon Resources Inc EXN | C$0.3900 | C$0.0600 | −85% |
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