ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 26.2B MXN (≈ $1.6B) · ISIN MX01AL0C0004
What is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V really worth?
A solid business, but trading 167% above our fair value of 4.84 MXN.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 11 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 2.42 MXN to 4.84 MXN (+100.0%) since Jul 13, 2026.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide (4.84 MXN to 13.16 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.09 MXN – 26.38 MXN · fair‑value band 4.84 MXN – 13.16 MXN · the 12.92 MXN price screens above the 4.84 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) currently trades at 12.92 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.84 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 167.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 20.54 MXN per share, and 5 of the 11 models we run sit above the 12.92 MXN price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 3.44 MXN, and 6 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V generated revenue of 122B MXN at a net margin of −3.3%. Revenue declined 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −11.4%. Net debt stands at 29.6B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 4.84 MXN (bear case) to 13.16 MXN (bull case); at 12.92 MXN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −58% fair-value upside, at −63%, ALPEKA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 11 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (20.54 MXN) versus Multiples (3.44 MXN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals.
Full company description
ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals. The company offers purified terephthalic acid (PTA), an organic compound that is raw material for PET; polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a plastic resin that creates products for their lightness, hygiene, and resistance along with their recyclability; recycled PET for new bottles and containers, strapping and packing supplies, and fibers for clothing and carpet; and polyester fibers, which are mainly used for food and beverage packaging, textile, and industrial filament markets. It also manufactures and sells polypropylene and expandable styrene, as well as fertilizers and other chemicals for consumer goods, automotive, construction, agriculture, pharmaceutical, and other markets. In addition, the company offers DPET Sheet, a PET sheet for food packaging applications, including bakery, produce, pre-packaged food, yoghurt, egg trays. and other consumer products. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 127B MXN in FY2025 versus 156B MXN in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −2.8B MXN in FY2025.
ALPEKA screens 167% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 695 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $485.35 | $222.03 | −54% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $344.86 | $143.38 | −58% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $286.75 | $96.18 | −66% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $308.09 | $122.14 | −60% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,282 | CHF 1,498 | −54% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥77.66 | ¥68.03 | −12% |
| 500820 500820 | ₹2,757 | ₹557.43 | −80% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 456.40 | kr 169.99 | −63% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,630 | ₹696.23 | −74% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $114.22 | $71.31 | −38% |
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