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ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 26.2B MXN (≈ $1.6B) · ISIN MX01AL0C0004

What is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V really worth?

AS ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V ALPEKA · MX
Price12.92 MXN
Fair Value4.84 MXN
Upside−62.5%
Quality51/100

A solid business, but trading 167% above our fair value of 4.84 MXN.

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Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +2.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.3% net margin
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range 4.84 MXN to 13.16 MXN
!Weak on balance sheet: 22 out of 100
Evidence: Low Range 4.84 MXN – 13.16 MXN

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 11 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 2.42 MXN to 4.84 MXN (+100.0%) since Jul 13, 2026.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (4.84 MXN to 13.16 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

26.38 MXN 8.09 MXN Fair Value 4.84 MXN May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 8.09 MXN – 26.38 MXN · fair‑value band 4.84 MXN – 13.16 MXN · the 12.92 MXN price screens above the 4.84 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) currently trades at 12.92 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.84 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 167.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 20.54 MXN per share, and 5 of the 11 models we run sit above the 12.92 MXN price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at 3.44 MXN, and 6 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V generated revenue of 122B MXN at a net margin of −3.3%. Revenue declined 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −11.4%. Net debt stands at 29.6B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 4.84 MXN (bear case) to 13.16 MXN (bull case); at 12.92 MXN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −58% fair-value upside, at −63%, ALPEKA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 11.94 MXN 21.38 MXN 37.40 MXN 77
Growth DCF 12.87 MXN 21.97 MXN 36.44 MXN 76
5Y EBITDA Exit 11.10 MXN 22.47 MXN 36.49 MXN 73
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 11.94 MXN 21.38 MXN 37.40 MXN 77
5Y Revenue Exit 2.47 MXN 7.61 MXN 14.54 MXN 67
5Y EBITDA Exit 11.10 MXN 22.47 MXN 36.49 MXN 73
10Y Revenue Exit 5.57 MXN 10.67 MXN 16.34 MXN 65
10Y EBITDA Exit 11.20 MXN 20.54 MXN 31.26 MXN 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT 3.44 MXN 7.60 MXN 61
EV/EBITDA 14.28 MXN 23.43 MXN 32.59 MXN 65
EV/Revenue 2.25 MXN 6.89 MXN 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 5.48 MXN 7.35 MXN 10.96 MXN 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 12.87 MXN 21.97 MXN 36.44 MXN 76
Rev-Margin DCF 2.47 MXN 8.09 MXN 14.88 MXN 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (20.54 MXN) versus Multiples (3.44 MXN). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).

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Key figures & financial health

P/S ratio 0.22 TTM
EPS (TTM) −1.94 MXN
Dividend yield 2.5%
Net margin −2.2% FY2025
Return on equity −11.4% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 5.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 122B MXN TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −15.0% 3y avg −15.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +22.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 5.1B MXN FY2025
Net debt 29.6B MXN FY2025 · ≈ 5.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 48 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 76
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 85
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 89
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals.

Full company description

ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals. The company offers purified terephthalic acid (PTA), an organic compound that is raw material for PET; polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a plastic resin that creates products for their lightness, hygiene, and resistance along with their recyclability; recycled PET for new bottles and containers, strapping and packing supplies, and fibers for clothing and carpet; and polyester fibers, which are mainly used for food and beverage packaging, textile, and industrial filament markets. It also manufactures and sells polypropylene and expandable styrene, as well as fertilizers and other chemicals for consumer goods, automotive, construction, agriculture, pharmaceutical, and other markets. In addition, the company offers DPET Sheet, a PET sheet for food packaging applications, including bakery, produce, pre-packaged food, yoghurt, egg trays. and other consumer products. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V reported revenue of 127B MXN in FY2025 versus 156B MXN in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −2.8B MXN in FY2025.

Growth Quality 28/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
127B MXN
Latest YoY
−7.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−15.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (16Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.5%
Value creation/yr We only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Revenue −5.1%/yr
FY21 156B MXN
FY22 212B MXN
FY23 138B MXN
FY24 137B MXN
FY25 127B MXN
Net income
FY21 7.8B MXN
FY22 13.7B MXN
FY23 −10.9B MXN
FY24 −765M MXN
FY25 −2.8B MXN

ALPEKA screens 167% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALPEKA

Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 695 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −63% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth −15% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.5% · Above median
Debt / equity 1.56× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.07× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.01× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.3× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE0 · sector 20
PAST0 · sector 23
HEALTH22 · sector 95
DIVIDEND51 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

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Givaudan SA GIVN CHF 3,282 CHF 1,498 −54%
Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 ¥77.66 ¥68.03 −12%
500820 500820 ₹2,757 ₹557.43 −80%
Novozymes A/S NSISB kr 456.40 kr 169.99 −63%
Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT ₹2,630 ₹696.23 −74%
PPG Industries, Inc PPG $114.22 $71.31 −38%

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Frequently asked questions

Is ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 4.84 MXN versus a price of 12.92 MXN, about −63% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALPEKA?
Our model-based fair value for ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is 4.84 MXN (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 12.92 MXN.
What is the quality score of ALPEKA?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V (ALPEKA)?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 122B MXN (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALPEKA?
The net profit margin of ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V is about −3.3%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V pay a dividend?
ALPEK S.A.B. de C.V currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.53% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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