ALPEK, S.A. (ALPEKA) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 26.2B MXN

A solid business, but screening 62% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The model range is unusually wide (4.84 MXN to 13.16 MXN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 8.09 MXN – 26.38 MXN · fair‑value band 4.84 MXN – 13.16 MXN · the 12.57 MXN price screens above the 4.84 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

ALPEK, S.A. (ALPEKA) currently trades at 12.57 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 4.84 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 61.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, ALPEK, S.A. generated revenue of 122B MXN at a net margin of -3.3%. Revenue declined 15.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.4%. Net debt stands at 29.6B MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 4.84 MXN (bear case) to 13.16 MXN (bull case); at 12.57 MXN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -68% fair-value upside, at -62%, ALPEKA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models (20.54 MXN) versus Multiples (3.44 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals.

Full company description

ALPEK, S.A.B. de C.V., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a petrochemical company in Mexico, the United States, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Canada, the United Kingdom, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. It operates in two segments, Polyester, and Plastic and Chemicals. The company offers purified terephthalic acid (PTA), an organic compound that is raw material for PET; polyethylene terephthalate (PET), a plastic resin that creates products for their lightness, hygiene, and resistance along with their recyclability; recycled PET for new bottles and containers, strapping and packing supplies, and fibers for clothing and carpet; and polyester fibers, which are mainly used for food and beverage packaging, textile, and industrial filament markets. It also manufactures and sells polypropylene and expandable styrene, as well as fertilizers and other chemicals for consumer goods, automotive, construction, agriculture, pharmaceutical, and other markets. In addition, the company offers DPET Sheet, a PET sheet for food packaging applications, including bakery, produce, pre-packaged food, yoghurt, egg trays. and other consumer products. The company was founded in 1975 and is based in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

ALPEK, S.A. reported revenue of 127B MXN in FY2025 versus 156B MXN in FY2021, a compound −5.1%/yr. Reported net income was −2.8B MXN in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Specialty Chemicals · 666 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.