Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · CN · Market cap 17.1B CNY (≈ $2.6B) · ISIN CNE100002CD1
What is Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 269% above our fair value of ¥6.71.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 15, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price −1.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥8.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥8.06 – ¥37.84 · fair‑value band ¥5.03 – ¥8.39 · the ¥24.74 price screens above the ¥6.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 15, 2026.
Analysis
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd (002838) currently trades at ¥24.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥6.71, implying the stock looks roughly 268.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥17.00 per share, and 0 of the 17 models we run sit above the ¥24.74 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥2.88, and 17 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd generated revenue of 6.5B CNY at a net margin of 4.1%. Revenue grew 33.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.7%. Net debt stands at 952M CNY. Fundamentals as of Aug 15, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ¥5.03 (bear case) to ¥8.39 (bull case); at ¥24.74, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −58% fair-value upside, at −73%, 002838 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ¥0.2978 per share, which is 4.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥17.00) versus Dividend Discount (¥2.88). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.,Ltd. develops, produces, sells, and services thermoplastic elastomer, modified plastic, master batch, and other products in China and internationally.
Full company description
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.,Ltd. develops, produces, sells, and services thermoplastic elastomer, modified plastic, master batch, and other products in China and internationally. The company offers TPV/TPE; thermoplastic polyurethanes; modified PP, modified ABS, modified PBT, modified nylon, alloy materials, non-woven melt blown materials, masterbatch, and other special engineering plastics; and bio-based materials, biodegradable materials, and melt-blown materials. It serves automotive, home appliances, electronic and electrical, rail transportation, aerospace, medical and health care, constructional engineering, sanitary ware, sports equipment, industrial products, civilian products, packaging, catering, and other fields. The company was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Longkou, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shandong Dawn Polymer Co Ltd reported revenue of 6.1B CNY in FY2025 versus 4.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was 189M CNY in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +26.7 % · buybacks/dilution −4.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
002838 screens 269% overvalued. Compare with Linde plc →
Peer Group
Specialty Chemicals · 695 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 15, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Linde plc LIN | $485.35 | $222.03 | −54% |
| The Sherwin-Williams Company SHW | $344.86 | $143.38 | −58% |
| Ecolab Inc ECL | $286.75 | $96.18 | −66% |
| Air Products and Chemicals, Inc APD | $308.09 | $122.14 | −60% |
| Givaudan SA GIVN | CHF 3,282 | CHF 1,498 | −54% |
| Wanhua Chemical Group 600309 | ¥77.66 | ¥68.03 | −12% |
| 500820 500820 | ₹2,757 | ₹557.43 | −80% |
| Novozymes A/S NSISB | kr 456.40 | kr 169.99 | −63% |
| Asian Paints Limited ASIANPAINT | ₹2,630 | ₹696.23 | −74% |
| PPG Industries, Inc PPG | $114.22 | $71.31 | −38% |
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