Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.7B · ISIN BMG0585R1060
What is Assured Guaranty Ltd really worth?
Assured Guaranty Ltd
AGO · US
A solid business, trading 49% below our fair value of $148.92.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 3, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Sep 3, 2026, revised from $151.82 to $148.92 (−1.9%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price −8.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($111.69). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $41.31 – $93.09 · fair‑value band $111.69 – $186.15 · the $75.82 price screens below the $148.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 3, 2026.
Analysis
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) currently trades at $75.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $148.92, implying the stock looks roughly 49.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $147.67 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $75.82 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $19.77, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Assured Guaranty Ltd generated revenue of $814M at a net margin of 51.0%. Revenue declined 6.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.9%. Net debt stands at $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 3, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $111.69 (bear case) to $186.15 (bull case); at $75.82, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 96%, AGO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.96 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($147.67) versus Dividend Discount ($19.77). Highest evidence: Residual Income (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 3, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 46
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments.
Full company description
Assured Guaranty Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides credit protection products to public finance and structured finance markets in the United States and internationally. It operates through Insurance and Asset Management segments. The company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments and other monetary obligations from defaults in scheduled payments. It also provides specialty insurance and reinsurance on transactions with risk profiles similar to those of its structured finance exposures written in financial guaranty form, as well as offers credit protection through reinsurance. In addition, the company insures and reinsures various the U.S. public finance obligations, such as general obligation, tax-backed bonds, municipal utility, transportation, healthcare, higher education, infrastructure, housing revenue, investor-owned utility, renewable energy, and other public finance bonds. Further, it involved in insuring and reinsuring of non-U.S. public finance obligations comprising regulated utilities, infrastructure finance, sovereign and sub-sovereign, renewable energy bonds, and pooled infrastructure obligations; and the U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance obligations, including residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, pooled corporate obligations, and financial products. Additionally, the company offers specialty business, such as diversified real estate, insurance reserve financing and securitizations, pooled corporate obligations, and aircraft residual value insurance (RVI) transactions; and asset management services comprising investment advisory services. It markets its financial guaranty insurance directly to issuers and underwriters of public finance and structured finance securities, as well as to investors. Assured Guaranty Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Assured Guaranty Ltd reported revenue of $788M in FY2025 versus $698M in FY2021, a compound +3.1%/yr. Reported net income was $503M in FY2025, compounding +6.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −5.8 % · buybacks/dilution +12.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch AGO: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AM Best Affirms Credit Ratings of Assured Guaranty Re Overseas Ltd.
- The Numbers Behind Assured Guaranty’s (AGO) Record-Setting Quarter
- 5 Revealing Analyst Questions From Assured Guaranty’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Assured Guaranty Guarantees €200 Million of Debt as part of the Refinancing of France’s A28 Toll Road
Peer Group
Insurance - Specialty · 29 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 3, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF | $46.45 | $29.08 | −37% |
| AXIS Capital Holdings AXS | $99.80 | $139.49 | +40% |
| First American Financial Corporation FAF | $73.59 | $64.26 | −13% |
| Enact Holdings ACT | $49.07 | $58.14 | +18% |
| MGIC Investment Corporation MTG | $31.29 | $39.71 | +27% |
| Essent Group ESNT | $69.27 | $91.14 | +32% |
| Radian Group RDN | $35.80 | $53.56 | +50% |
| Protector Forsikring ASA PROT | kr 480.40 | kr 273.28 | −43% |
| NMI Holdings NMIH | $44.80 | $56.53 | +26% |
| nib holdings limited, NHF | A$7.40 | A$3.56 | −52% |
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