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GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc (3986) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · HK · Market cap HK$680B

GS GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc 3986 · HK
PriceHK$501.00
Fair ValueHK$274.86
Upside-45.1%
Quality71/100
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Healthy Growth
Highly profitable · 25.0% net margin
generates free cash flow
0.06% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
Wide moat 79/100
Evidence: High Range HK$191.53 – HK$330.25 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$540.01 to HK$274.86 (−49.1%) since Jul 7, 2026. Share price −27.3% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 45% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$330.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
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Price vs Fair Value (7 months)

HK$1,241 HK$222.38 Fair Value HK$274.86 Jan 2026 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

7‑month range HK$222.38 – HK$1,241 · fair‑value band HK$191.53 – HK$330.25 · the HK$501.00 price screens above the HK$274.86 fair value. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc (3986) currently trades at HK$501.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$274.86, implying the stock looks roughly 45.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc generated revenue of HK$11.5B at a net margin of 25.0%. Revenue grew 119.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.7%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$8.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$191.53 (bear case) to HK$330.25 (bull case); at HK$501.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 60% below its 52-week high and 128% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -61% fair-value upside, at -45%, 3986 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (HK$3.08 to HK$58.57). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income HK$11.96 HK$13.01 HK$18.22 76
Growth DCF HK$20.15 HK$32.66 HK$59.03 72
Gordon GGM HK$1.72 HK$3.76 HK$6.32 70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$20.97 HK$29.66 HK$58.10 38
Owner Earnings HK$18.87 HK$35.12 HK$70.78 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$17.75 HK$26.32 HK$43.78 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$23.80 HK$38.85 HK$67.67 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$29.16 HK$58.57 HK$98.37 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$18.31 HK$31.72 HK$42.62 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$23.19 HK$44.49 HK$84.85 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$27.14 HK$55.78 HK$107.38 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$8.04 HK$56.06 HK$78.67 54
Lynch FV HK$19.30 HK$27.57 HK$35.84 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$19.30 HK$27.57 HK$35.84 46
EPV HK$15.73 HK$17.31 HK$18.71 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$1.72 HK$3.76 HK$6.32 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$1.72 HK$3.08 HK$3.91 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$24.83 HK$33.10 HK$41.38 63
P/S Multiple HK$15.07 HK$20.10 HK$25.12 58
P/B Multiple HK$15.07 HK$20.10 HK$25.12 55
EV/EBIT HK$24.69 HK$30.66 HK$36.64 53
EV/EBITDA HK$24.49 HK$30.40 HK$36.31 54
EV/Revenue HK$15.83 HK$19.71 HK$23.59 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$7.00 HK$9.38 HK$14.00 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$20.15 HK$32.66 HK$59.03 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$17.75 HK$29.13 HK$47.32 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$11.96 HK$13.01 HK$18.22 76
ROIC Compounder HK$17.48 HK$22.38 HK$26.67 67
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$28.64 HK$40.92 HK$53.19 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$40.92) versus Dividend Discount (HK$3.08). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$11.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) +119%
Net margin 25.0%
Return on equity 13.7%
Free cash flow HK$1.1B FY2025
P/E ratio 194.3 as of Jul 2, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 41.1%
EPS (TTM) HK$2.46
Dividend yield 0.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +523%
Net cash HK$8.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 74
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 55
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 1
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 70
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. engages in the research, development, technical support, and sale of memory, microcontrollers, sensors, and analog chips.

Full company description

GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. engages in the research, development, technical support, and sale of memory, microcontrollers, sensors, and analog chips. The company offers SPI NOR, SPI NAND, parallel NAND, wafer level chip scale packaging (WLCSP), and known good die (KGD) flash products; 32-bit microcontrollers (MCUs), such as high-performance, mainstream, entry-level, low-power consumptions, automotive, and specific MCUs, as well as wireless MCUs and modules; and sensors comprising touch controllers, fingerprint recognition, and barometric pressure sensors. It also provides analogs consisting of general power supply products, including low drop linear regulators and DC-DC converters; application specific standard products (ASSP), such as ASSP for DDR and power management IC for TWS earbuds; motor drivers comprising 3-Phase MOSFET pre-drivers, brushed DC motor drivers, multi-channel full-bridge drivers, and brushless DC motor driver SOCs; charging management products, such as battery charger and protection ICs; signal chain products which include ADC, operation amplifiers, comparators, high precision voltage references, current monitors, and temperature/temperature humidity sensors; and BMS AFE products. Its products are used in automotive, industrial, PC and peripherals, consumer electronics, Internet of Things, network communication, and mobile applications. The company sells its products through operations and distributor networks in China, Singapore, the United States, South Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Turkey, Italy, and Mexico. The company was formerly known as GigaDevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc. and changed its name to GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. in August 2022. GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc reported revenue of HK$8.9B in FY2025 versus HK$8.3B in FY2021, a compound +1.7%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.6B in FY2025, compounding −8.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$8.9B
Latest YoY
+19.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.8%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.1%
Avg. growth/yr (12Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+22.4%
Revenue +1.7%/yr
FY21 HK$8.3B
FY22 HK$8.2B
FY23 HK$5.7B
FY24 HK$7.5B
FY25 HK$8.9B
Net income −8.6%/yr
FY21 HK$2.3B
FY22 HK$2.1B
FY23 HK$161M
FY24 HK$1.1B
FY25 HK$1.6B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +20.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +19.3 pp

of which total revenue +22.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.6 pp

EBIT margin −0.9 pp
Tax rate +1.2 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.8 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

3986 screens 45% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →

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GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc · Fair Value
HK$274.86 −45%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/3986

Peer Group

Semiconductors · 322 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −45% · Above median
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 41% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 119% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 194.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 35.79× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 59.25× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 80.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 0
FUTURE 100 · sector 59
PAST 55 · sector 23
HEALTH 0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND 1 · sector 20

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA $217.50 $98.98 -54%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM $429.15 $291.42 -32%
Broadcom Inc 1AVGO €366.85 €121.25 -67%
Micron Technology, Inc 1MU €802.10 €185.67 -77%
SK hynix Inc 000660 1,504,000 KRW 1,481,291 KRW -2%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc 1AMD €428.20 €56.33 -87%
Intel Corporation INTC C$54.79 C$11.71 -79%
MediaTek Inc 2454 4,015 TWD 1,559 TWD -61%
SK Square Co 402340 1,024,000 KRW 1,204,862 KRW +18%
ASE Technology Holding 3711 621.00 TWD 200.08 TWD -68%

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Frequently asked questions

Is GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc (3986) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$274.86 versus a price of HK$501.00, about −45% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 3986?
Our model-based fair value for GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc is HK$274.86 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$501.00.
What is the quality score of 3986?
GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc (3986)?
GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$11.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 3986?
The net profit margin of GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc is about 25.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 25.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc pay a dividend?
GigaDevice Semiconductor Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.06% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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